Probability of Bitcoin price falling to new lows is decreasing
The probability of the Bitcoin (BTC) price falling below the 60,000 USD level is estimated as "very low." The main reason for this is that long-term holders (LTH) have increased their assets to 71.6% of the total supply. Currently, holders in this category possess over 15 million BTC, which is a key factor ensuring market stability. This is reported by Cointelegraph.com .
According to technical analysis, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retested the 50 level. Historical data shows that once the Bitcoin RSI rises above this threshold, it enters a long-term growth phase. This pattern was only broken in 2022 due to the FTX exchange crisis, but the current market environment appears much more positive.
A CryptoZeno analyst noted that the indicator for investors holding Bitcoin for more than a year has returned to the historical "oversold" zone. Such a situation was previously observed before major bull cycles in 2013, 2016, 2019, and 2022. Currently, the process is one of active accumulation rather than selling assets.
On-chain data also confirms this trend. The long-term Bitcoin supply has exceeded 15.04 million BTC for the first time since October 1, 2025. This represents a significant portion of the total coins in circulation and indicates that the volume of free assets available for sale in the market is shrinking.
Nevertheless, miner activity requires some caution. Binance pool miner reserves have slightly decreased from 41,987 to 41,915 BTC since May. While this shows that miners are regularly providing liquidity to exchanges, against the backdrop of overall LTH data, this situation is not expected to have a sharp negative impact on the market.
