Bitwise: Bitcoin price could reach $224,000 amid sovereign debt crisis

According to a new report by asset management firm Bitwise, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could rise significantly if investor concerns regarding sovereign debt intensify. Pressure on global bond markets and rising government debt are strengthening Bitcoin's role as a hedge against macroeconomic risks. According to one analytical model, the asset's theoretical "fair value" could reach $224,000. This is reported by Cointelegraph.com .

According to estimates by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), governments and companies will need to borrow approximately 29 trillion USD in 2026. This is 17 percent more than in 2024 and almost double the figure from a decade ago. Notably, about 78 percent of OECD countries' debt is expected to be directed solely toward refinancing existing debt.

The Japanese market is currently in the spotlight. The country's 10-year government bond yield has risen to 2.78 percent, while public debt has reached 230 percent of GDP. In the US, the 30-year Treasury bond yield also recorded its highest level since 2007 at 5.11 percent. Under these conditions, sovereign risk premiums have risen to their highest levels since the European debt crisis of 2011-2012.

Bitwise analysts, relying on a model developed by investor Greg Foss, suggest that if Bitcoin is more widely adopted as a hedge against sovereign default risk, its price could rise to $224,000. However, this figure is a theoretical valuation rather than a precise price forecast. In the short term, Bitcoin's price is expected to remain within a certain range due to high real interest rates and tight financial conditions.

Historically, Bitcoin performs well during periods of falling real interest rates. When the Fed rate is lower than inflation, cash and bonds lose their appeal, prompting investors to invest more in crypto assets. If central banks are forced to inject liquidity to stabilize financial markets, this could be a strong catalyst for Bitcoin.