According to data from the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, this year’s inflation rate is expected to be around 8%, while economic growth is anticipated to be in the range of 7-7.5%. These figures are outlined in a monetary policy report aimed at the year 2028.
In 2025, the Uzbek economy is projected to grow by 6.5% under the baseline scenario, with growth rates expected to rise to 7% in 2027 and 2028. The Central Bank forecasts that global economic growth will remain subdued in the medium term.
At the same time, no drastic changes are expected in the currency market, while gold prices are predicted to remain high. Regarding Uzbekistan-specific indicators, the regulator anticipates a normalization of credit growth rates, an increase in average monthly wages, and a stable inflow of investments.
The state budget deficit is forecasted to remain at 3% of GDP. Factors contributing to inflationary risks in the country include sharp depreciations of partner countries’ currencies, decreases in gold prices, and rising costs of imported food products.
“In the event of such shocks, monetary policy will be implemented with the goal of bringing inflation down to 5% in the medium term,” the regulator stated. To curb price increases, the rising prices of precious metals, acceleration of privatization processes, and improvements in the investment climate will play a significant role.
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