In December, inflation expectations among Uzbekistan’s population for the next 12 months remained unchanged at 11.5%. Among business representatives, the figure rose to 11.1%. These numbers are well above the Central Bank’s inflation forecast for the end of 2026 — about 6.5%. This was reported by Kursiv.uz. reports .
According to surveys conducted by the Central Bank, this was the first month in a long time when the decline in expectations stopped: among the public, expectations had been falling for seven consecutive months, while in business they had been decreasing for four months.
The main factor behind rising concerns in expectations was cited as higher utility tariffs. This item was mentioned by 50% of surveyed citizens and 46% of entrepreneurs.
Among the public, concerns about fuel and energy prices surged to 47%. Expectations of higher transport costs also stood at 29%.
Among entrepreneurs, expectations of rising transport costs (37%) and higher fuel and energy resource prices (45%) also strengthened. In addition, concerns about an increasing tax burden and wage costs have grown.
The highest inflation expectations were again recorded in Tashkent: residents of the capital expect inflation at 13.5%, while businesses forecast 12.2%. The lowest expectations were in Samarkand region — 9.7%.
By social groups, the most pessimistic sentiment was observed among pensioners, whose expectations were 12.9%. The lowest figure was recorded among students at 9.5%.
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