What would happen if the US withdrew its troops from Europe?

European countries are concerned that the US may withdraw its military personnel and military equipment from Europe, as well as abandon its role as the main guarantor of Ukraine's and Europe's security in general.

According to the Financial Times article, European countries have several priority tasks: increasing defense spending, strengthening air defense, replacing logistics equipment and other supporting equipment currently provided by the US, as well as increasing the combat readiness of European troops and maintaining an effective nuclear deterrent.

In recent days, discussions on rearmament have intensified sharply in Europe. According to the Financial Times, officials are discussing how to increase national military budgets and find new financial mechanisms to finance joint defense projects.

Among such projects, journalists cite a pan-European air defense shield and transport systems, including aircraft currently being provided by the United States. In addition, according to NATO officials, Europe is short of ammunition for long-range weapons.

If Europe were to find the necessary resources, this would be a “significant game changer,” says Camille Grand, former NATO assistant secretary general for defense investment. In this case, Europe would be able to perform almost all military tasks without US assistance.

“They do not call [the United States] an indispensable ally,” a European foreign minister told the publication. “Without them, we cannot conduct any complex military operations, we cannot even solve simple tasks.”

One question that worries European officials is what to do if the United States withdraws its troops from Europe, partially or completely? There are currently 90,000 US troops stationed in several European countries. In particular, officials and analysts who spoke to the Financial Times are concerned that Trump will withdraw the 20,000 US troops that the US has sent to Poland, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia in 2022 after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Trump has said that he does not intend to withdraw all US troops from Europe as part of a possible peace deal on Ukraine. “Nobody is asking for it, so I don’t think we should do it. I wouldn’t want to do it. But it has never been an issue,” the US president said on February 18, speaking to reporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.

In theory, European countries have enough troops to defend their borders in the event of an attack. European countries have almost two million soldiers in their armies, 1.3 million of whom are in the European Union. However, the publication notes that in practice, most of these forces are not ready to be deployed. In particular, over the past 80 years, European armies have been formed and trained with the help of the United States. Replacing this system will require billions of euros in time and money. In addition, it is also unknown whether European countries will be able to adequately equip their armies.

However, most likely, Europe's main strategic problem is the future of the US "nuclear umbrella" and the lack of its own tactical nuclear weapons. According to the Financial Times, France and Great Britain, which are the nuclear powers of Europe, have about 515 nuclear warheads, but these are mainly strategic weapons.

If the United States officially refuses to defend Europe, the lack of tactical nuclear weapons will create a "gap in the deterrent system", which Russia could exploit, the article says.

Europe's quest for "defense independence" began in the 1950s with the idea of ​​creating a European Defense Community and continued in the following decades. All of these attempts failed, after which the United States expressed its readiness to take on European defense responsibilities, writes the Financial Times.

"The European mindset needs to change," former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö told reporters. "If you show your weakness, you cannot avoid war." Follow “Zamin” news on “Telegram”