India threatens Pakistan with cutting off water

India has accused Pakistan of the Kashmir terrorist attack that killed 26 tourists and, for the first time, has suspended the implementation of the water agreement signed 65 years ago. Pakistani authorities called this move an “act of water war.” Kun.uz correspondent approached political analysts Islamkhan Ghaffarov and Hamza Boltaev for commentary on the conflict.

The conflict between India and Pakistan is considered one of the most dangerous frozen conflicts in the world. The Kashmir issue remains at the heart of this confrontation. Unlike other conflicts, both countries possess nuclear weapons.

On April 22, tensions flared up again in Kashmir. On Wednesday, armed terrorists opened fire on a group of mostly Indian tourists in Indian-controlled Pahalgam, killing at least 26 people and injuring more than 20.

The “Resistance Front,” affiliated with the terrorist group “Lashkar-e-Taiba,” claimed responsibility for the attack. India blamed Pakistan for the assault. Flights and trade were suspended, visas were canceled, and diplomats were ordered to leave. Most significantly, India unilaterally suspended the 1960 water treaty. Pakistan has equated this move to a declaration of war.

According to political analyst Islamkhan Ghaffarov, tensions in the region escalated in 2019 when India revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy. Since then, the region has been directly governed from New Delhi, which sparked dissatisfaction among Kashmiris and the Pakistani government. “The terrorist attacks can be seen as a manifestation of this discontent,” he said.

“In March, in Pakistan, and in April, in Iran’s Baluchistan province near the Pakistan border, terrorist attacks occurred in which Pakistanis and Chinese nationals were killed. Islamabad accused Indian intelligence services, and New Delhi denied the allegations. These events create an impression that both sides are confronting each other through third parties,” Islamkhan Ghaffarov added.

According to regional expert Hamza Boltaev, Indian authorities have yet to provide evidence proving Pakistani involvement in the Pahalgam attack.

“Tourism is well developed in both Indian and Pakistani parts of Kashmir. Tourism plays an important role in local incomes. A decrease in tourist flow due to the terrorist attack will negatively impact the local economy. Moreover, heightened security measures will bring additional restrictions, causing further economic damage.

If India-Pakistan relations remain tense, this could also affect India’s relations with the US and China, as well as Pakistan’s ties with China. Relations between Pakistan and China are strong, but such incidents could put them to the test,” said Hamza Boltaev.

Islamkhan Ghaffarov pointed out that the foreign ministers of Pakistan and Bangladesh recently met, reviving relations frozen for 15 years. Traditionally, Bangladesh has been more favorable toward India and distant from Pakistan. However, the current government seems to prefer rapprochement with Pakistan. Muslim-majority countries on both sides of India are increasingly cooperating, noted the analyst.

Experts believe that this escalation may also affect the trust atmosphere within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), of which both India and Pakistan have been members since 2017.

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