On July 28, 2025, oil markets awoke to positive news. A trade agreement between the US and the European Union, along with ongoing tariff negotiations with China, began to restore confidence in the global economy. This, in turn, contributed to a modest increase in Brent and WTI oil prices.
How did the trade deal affect prices?
Under the new agreement, import tariffs between the US and the EU are set at 15% — significantly lower than the previously proposed doubled rate. Such an agreement helped prevent a global trade war and reduced the likelihood of a negative impact on fuel consumption. Brent crude rose to $68.64 per barrel (+0.29%), while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was priced around $65.31 (+0.23%).
OPEC+ policy and oil production forecasts
Another important factor influencing oil prices is the OPEC+ group’s plan for a gradual production increase. By September 2025, an additional 2.2 million barrels per day are expected to be released into the market, with 548,000 barrels scheduled for August.
Relations with Europe and China: global markets calming down
In addition to the US-EU deal, tariff talks with China are also underway. High-level negotiations continuing in Stockholm are expected to prevent a sharp tariff hike set to take effect in August. This would help maintain China’s stable presence in the energy market and preserve strong global demand.
