Expert: "Conditions for an earthquake have been reached in the seismic regions of Uzbekistan"

Today, March 12, at 6:16 in the morning, an earthquake with a magnitude of 3.6 occurred in the Tashkent region. The epicenter of the earthquake was the Tashkent district of the Tashkent region. Can the earthquake be repeated, and what is the seismic condition of the territory of Uzbekistan now? Ulfat Nurmatov, head of the seismogeodynamics laboratory of the Institute of Seismology, answered these questions.

According to Nurmatov, the earthquake that occurred in the Tashkent region on March 12 was reflected in long-term forecasts.

“The last time such activations occurred was in 2008. After that, it happened in 2025. Such earthquakes are typical for our zone. It is good that there are many such earthquakes. Because the energy accumulated underground is often spent. It does not accumulate,” he explained.

The scientist added that the epicenter of the March 12 earthquake is located in the Tashkent-Piskom seismic zone, and this area is periodically active, that in history there have been 7-8 significant earthquakes in and around Tashkent, and that this zone has the potential to cause an earthquake of magnitude 6.5.

“We said that conditions are also developing for an earthquake in the Tashkent epicenter, and that activation may occur in the near future. This is the average statistic. It may be stronger. Because the potential of this zone is high. Usually, an earthquake does not end with one, and then there may be smaller ones,” he said.

He also noted that it has been a long time since strong earthquakes occurred in the seismic zones of Uzbekistan, and if we consider the average recurrence period, then the conditions for further activation have been met.

“It is difficult to say the exact day or week, but we can conclude that it may be activated in the near future within 1-2 years. These are relatively justified,” said the head of the institute’s laboratory.

According to the scientist, the foci where earthquakes occurred in the past are now in seismic silence. For example, the Andijan earthquake occurred in 1902, and in 1937 in Piskent, and after that, no strong earthquakes were observed in these regions. “Now, in the future, strong earthquakes may occur in the regions near it,” Nurmatov said.

According to the expert, in previous years or earlier, Central Asia experienced an average of 5-10 earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 4 per week, but now their number has decreased to 3-4.

“Now the number of earthquakes has also decreased in Uzbekistan. Now a 4.6 magnitude earthquake has also occurred in Kyrgyzstan. The entire Central Asian region may gradually enter a state of activation. It is difficult to say exactly when this will happen, but we are also engaged in operational forecasts, and we have developed maps of where earthquakes may occur in the near future,” said the institute expert. Follow “Zamin” news on “Telegram”