Will the US sanctions give a strong blow to the ruble exchange rate?

The American sanctions imposed by Washington against Russian oil in the last days of Joe Biden's presidency will lead to the loss of tens of billions of dollars in export revenues for the Russian economy, and the dollar exchange rate will exceed 130 rubles within two years. This forecast is contained in an analysis published on Monday, February 10, by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting, which is close to the Russian government.

According to the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting, the imposition of sanctions against Gazprom Neft, Surgutneftegaz and more than 180 tankers of the Russian "shadow fleet" will lead to a reduction in foreign currency inflows to Russia by $ 156 billion over the next three years. According to experts, the country's economy will lose $47 billion in 2025, $57 billion in 2026, and $52 billion in 2027 due to the reduction in oil exports, as well as additional discounts that Russian oil companies will be forced to give.

And this, according to the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting, should affect the additional devaluation of the Russian currency. Thus, the average dollar exchange rate is expected to rise to 108.3 rubles this year, next year it will be 124.9 rubles, and in 2027 it will be 132.2 rubles.

In addition, if the sanctions had not been imposed, the exchange rate of the American currency would have fallen significantly: this year one dollar would be 99.2 rubles (9.1 rubles cheaper), in 2026 it would be 105.7 rubles (19.3), and in 2027 it would be 109.4 rubles (22.9 rubles less than the base rate).

As a result, the inflation rate will increase, so the center's experts expect the Central Bank to raise the key rate again in the first half of 2025 to 23 percent per annum, the maximum level since 2002.

According to the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting, this year's gross domestic product growth will be 0.4 percentage points lower than in the scenario without sanctions, and next year by 0.3 percentage points. Follow “Zamin” news on “Telegram”