Russia-Ukraine war marks 3 years: how close is peace?

If the results of the wars are not fair, if one or both sides are dissatisfied with the outcome of the war, this war will start again over time.

Exactly three years ago, on February 24, 2022, the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine and began shelling its largest cities, including the capital Kiev. Three years later, both sides have become exhausted from this war. It seems that Trump's coming to power in the US is accelerating the end of the war. Because Trump made a big promise that he would "stop this war in one day."

Today, experts and politicians are talking about two models for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. One is a comprehensive, stable and long-term peace. The second is a freeze of the conflict.

So, what is a "sustainable peace"? A lasting peace means the absence of any resentment on the part of both sides, their allies or close partners, the absence of any desire or desire to start a new war after the war has ended, and the predominance of satisfaction with the results.

“Freezing the conflict” is a temporary process. Because one or both sides are secretly or openly dissatisfied with the results achieved, and when the opportunity arises, they are inclined to start the war again.

So, what are Trump and Putin proposing to Ukraine today? First, the occupied Ukrainian lands will remain in Russia, at least the lands of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kharkiv regions that were not taken by Russia should be given to Russia. Because these regions are designated as Russian territory by the Russian Federation. In addition, Ukraine should not join NATO, should not form a large army, etc. These conditions strongly humiliate Ukraine, and no matter who is in power in Ukraine, it will be inclined to revanchism, revenge, and revenge.

As for Russia, this country has also not been able to achieve the strategic goals it has set for itself. Now, if the war is over and the remaining regions of Ukraine are economically and militarily strengthened, then in a few years, if another person is in power in the United States, the doors of NATO may open again for Ukraine, and Russia will remain dissatisfied with this situation.

In addition, the European Union countries, Turkey, and many other countries, which are close supporters of Ukraine, are talking about a “just peace.” In particular, Turkish President Erdogan met with Zelensky a few days ago and again spoke about the “territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine.” The European Union has a similar position.

Ukraine has not yet agreed to stop the war with Russia, but pressure on Ukraine has increased. The European Union, Turkey, and others still intend to help Ukraine. For Trump, the struggle is not over yet.

So far, the proposals for the Russo-Ukrainian war are only a very precarious “freeze.” Because Ukraine will be very unhappy with these results. If Trump leaves tomorrow, Putin leaves, or other favorable factors arise, Ukraine will be interested in regaining its territory by military means.

If the Russo-Ukrainian war ends under the current Russian conditions, it will be reminiscent of the First World War. Germany, which was at war on the side of Austria-Hungary, loses to the Entente (England, France, Russia). The winning side will impose huge reparations on Germany, “take away” some of the German lands. As a result, a great sense of revenge and revenge will arise in the German nation. Soon Hitler will come to power in Germany, and the entire German people will unite around Hitler, and begin a war of “revenge” on the rest.

If the results of the war are not fair, if one or both sides are forced to stop the war in protest, the war will start again. This is a situation that has been observed many times in history.

The Russian-Ukrainian war is also very far from a “full-fledged peace”. If the war is stopped by putting pressure on Ukraine, this will be a temporary peace, this will only be a “freezing of the war”. The Russian-Ukrainian war, like the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, is in danger of taking on an ideological character and continuing latently. Unfortunately, the war is not yet completely ended, it is being put on pause...

Follow “Zamin” news on “Telegram”