Unexpected changes were observed in the currency market in June of this year: on June 5, 1 US dollar was 12,831 sums, and by June 23, the official rate had dropped to 12,496 sums. According to calculations, the sum strengthened by 2.6 percent during this period. However, some experts explain this not as a strengthening of the sum, but as a global devaluation of the dollar.
Dollar decline and foreign trade impact
One of the most important factors influencing the dollar rate in Uzbekistan is the country's foreign trade. In January–April of this year, the republic’s exports reached 11.9 billion dollars, which is 35.1 percent more than the same period last year. A large part of this growth (46.1 percent) was provided by gold trade. The volume of gold exports reached 5.55 billion dollars, which is 62.3 percent more than last year. Here, the rise in gold prices on the world market played a significant role – as of June 23, 1 ounce of gold reached 3,376 dollars.
At the same time, remittances from abroad are also growing. In the first quarter of 2025, funds sent by labor migrants increased by 32 percent, totaling 3.3 billion dollars. This situation contributes to an increase in the supply of dollars in the domestic market.
Investments and trends in the currency market
The amount of direct and other foreign investments coming to Uzbekistan is also one of the important factors increasing the supply of dollars. For example, in January–March 2025, the total volume of investments in the country reached 6.1 billion dollars, which is 10 percent higher than last year.
At the same time, due to global economic uncertainties, political instability in the US, geopolitical conflicts, and trade barriers, the dollar is weakening internationally. Since the beginning of 2025, the US dollar index has dropped by almost 9.1 percent against major currencies. As a result, the euro, Swiss franc, Russian ruble, and many other currencies have strengthened against the dollar.
Expert opinion: is the sum strengthening or is the dollar weakening?
Economist Yuliy Yusupov says that this trend should be evaluated not as a strengthening of the sum, but as a weakening of the dollar. Because Uzbekistan’s main trading partners are not the US, but China, Russia, and European countries. Therefore, the real value of the sum is formed against the currencies of these countries according to the inflation rate.
The impact of the dollar decline on the population
When the dollar rate rises, usually inflation in the country increases and prices go up. However, under current conditions, the US dollar is depreciating not only against the sum, but also against many world currencies. This may lead to lower inflation, a decrease in prices for imported and consumer goods in Uzbekistan. Strengthening of the sum serves to increase the purchasing power of the population.
Stability in the economy reduces inflation expectations among the population and business. In turn, this reduces the degree of dependence on the dollar and slows down dollarization in the economy.
Exchange rate regime and forecasts
Since September 2017, Uzbekistan has been operating in a floating exchange rate regime. In this system, the official rate is formed every day on the currency exchange based on demand and supply. The Central Bank emphasizes that it is difficult to predict the rate in advance, as it depends on many external and internal factors.
The budget and international agencies continue to provide their forecasts. For example, in the parameters of the state budget for 2025, the dollar rate is set at 13,250 sums, in 2026 – 13,725 sums, and in 2027 – 14,150 sums. The S&P agency predicts that by the end of 2025, 1 dollar will reach 13,650 sums, and in 2027 – up to 15,000 sums.
Dollar rate increase and sum devaluation
An increase in the dollar rate leads to a devaluation of the national currency. According to the Ministry of Finance, every increase of 100 sums in the rate increases state budget expenditures by 240 billion sums. In 2024, the sum devalued by 4.7 percent against the dollar, and in 2025, inflation of about 5 percent is expected.
Final conclusion
There are many factors behind the fall of the dollar and the strengthening of the sum in Uzbekistan. Among them are the country’s foreign trade balance, gold and remittances, investments, trends in international currency markets, forecasts of the budget and international organizations. These processes have various effects on the population and the economy. Read 'Zamin' on Telegram!
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