Extreme climatic conditions pose a serious threat to cocoa production worldwide. Experts warn that if current trends persist, the chocolate industry may face a deep crisis by 2050, and chocolate may even disappear altogether.
It is known that chocolate production depends on cocoa. About 60% of the world's cocoa reserves are accounted for by Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, located in West Africa. However, over the past two years, cocoa yields in these regions have decreased by about 40%, leading to an unprecedented increase in chocolate prices since the 1970s.
Although experts acknowledge that illegal gold mining and aging trees are also contributing to the problem, the Salata Institute of Climate and Sustainability at Harvard University points to the sharp variability of precipitation as the main threat. As temperatures rise, atmospheric humidity increases, causing heavy rainfall, soil erosion, and fungal diseases that damage cocoa trees.
As a solution to the problem, scientists at the National University of Singapore are focusing on the carob plant as an alternative to cocoa. Karob is resistant to hot and dry climates and produces a cocoa-like aroma when fried. Scientists have developed a natural method based on enzymes to bring its taste closer to cocoa.
According to the author of the study, Manfred Kuhn, the goal is not only to replicate the taste of cocoa, but also to adapt the chocolate industry to climate risks. If this technology is implemented in practice, the dependence on cocoa can be significantly reduced.
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