In June 2025, the Fitch Ratings agency upgraded its outlook on the operating environment for Uzbekistan's banks from "stable" to "positive" and affirmed its assessment at the "b" level. Pavel Kaptel, Director for Uzbekistan Banking at Fitch Ratings, explained the reasons behind these changes.
The agency's methodology for evaluating the operating environment includes factors such as the dynamics of economic growth, the government's regulatory approach to the economy and the banking sector, as well as specific risks influencing banking activities. Two key indicators are used in this evaluation: GDP per capita (calculated in US dollar equivalents at global prices) and the Operational Risk Index (ORI), calculated by BMI Company.
The operating environment for Uzbekistan’s banks is rated at the "B" level, which is lower than that of many other countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus region. For instance, Kazakhstan is rated "BB+", while Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan are rated "BB-".
However, significant positive changes have been observed in Uzbekistan’s economic environment. In 2023, the privatization of the state’s stake in "Ipoteka Bank" was successfully completed, and preparations are underway for the privatization of other state-owned banks.
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has implemented a series of measures to develop the banking sector, including increasing minimum capital requirements and enforcing strict actions to improve loan quality. As a result of these reforms, positive changes have been noted in the banking sector.
According to Fitch’s forecast, the operating environment assessment may rise to the "B+" level within the next 1-2 years. These improvements have also been reflected in the ratings of private banks, particularly "Kapitalbank" and "Ipak Yo'li" Bank.
Meanwhile, the ratings of state-owned banks are primarily based on government support and are less affected by changes in the operating environment assessment.
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