Russia’s birth rate hits historic low — worst in 200 years

Despite traditional values, abortion restrictions, and pro-natalist policies, Russia is sinking deeper into demographic crisis. This is confirmed by the latest data from Rosstat.

In January–February 2025, birth rates declined by 3%, with only 195,400 babies born. In February alone, the drop was 7.6% — 7,400 fewer births than in the same month last year.

“Lowest number in 200 years”

According to demographer Alexey Raksha, the February 2025 birth count is the lowest since the late 18th century. He noted the anti-record continued in March as well.

"The first quarter of 2025 marked the lowest birth rate since the 18th and 19th centuries," says Raksha.

Regions in demographic free fall

Some regions reported drastic drops in birth rates:

• Smolensk Oblast: –26.6%

• Kostroma Oblast: –21.6%

• Karelia: –19.4%

• Arkhangelsk Oblast: –18.7%

Although deaths dropped by 5.2%, it didn’t offset the birth rate collapse — the population shrank by 118,800 people in just two months.

Forecast for 2046: down to 130 million?

According to Rosstat’s baseline forecast:

• Russia’s population could fall to 138.8 million by 2046

• In a pessimistic scenario — down to 130 million, the population level of the 1897 Russian Empire

The numbers speak clearly

• 2024: 1.222 million births (lowest since 1999)

• Since 2014: 30% drop in birth rate

• From 2016 to 2024: over 3 million lost through natural decline

• Average annual decrease: ~500,000 people

What do you think — is there a way out of Russia’s demographic crisis?

Шухрат Раззаков

Editor of «ZAMIN.UZ»