Analysis: Is the end of the Russia-Ukraine war near?

Return to Istanbul: Will Vladimir Putin's offer to return to talks bring an end to the war?

BBC Russian correspondent Elizaveta Focht explains.

There are two important points to note in Vladimir Putin's late-night speech to reporters in the Kremlin.

Firstly, the Russian president has effectively abandoned the idea of ​​extending the ceasefire for 30 days. Ukraine and its European allies have been eagerly awaiting a long-term truce. Putin, however, has refused to accept a ceasefire, citing Ukraine's previous violations of the ceasefire (Ukrainian officials have also accused Russia of committing similar violations during the ceasefire).

Secondly, Putin, who has repeatedly said he is ready to start direct talks with Ukraine, has for the first time offered Kiev a specific date and place for the meeting: May 15, Istanbul. From the Russian president's words, it is clear that he is actually proposing to resume negotiations that were suspended three years ago.

Meanwhile, in the spring of 2022, Russian and Ukrainian delegations met in Belarus and Istanbul. The result of this dialogue was the Istanbul Communiqué - a document that stated that Ukraine could agree to a neutral status in exchange for security guarantees, and the issue of the occupied territories would be discussed personally by Putin and Zelensky. Ultimately, the deal collapsed.

It is unknown whether Ukrainian officials knew that Vladimir Putin would invite them to a meeting in Istanbul. The form chosen by the Kremlin for this proposal certainly raises doubts about the seriousness of the Russian president's intentions.

In any case, Putin's proposal puts Kiev in a difficult position. On the one hand, Ukraine, supported by its allies, has been insisting for several weeks that real negotiations with Russia can only begin when hostilities cease. On the other hand, the United States, led by Donald Trump, is putting pressure on Kiev, wanting to end the war as soon as possible.

If Kiev nevertheless agrees to direct negotiations with Moscow, this will begin a complex diplomatic process with many unknowns. What should be done with the occupied territories? What security guarantees will Kiev have and who will provide them? Given that they were prepared before the annexation of four Ukrainian regions, is it possible to return to the documents of the Istanbul Communiqué era? Is Russia ready for any compromise?

These are all very painful questions. They will have to be answered sooner or later. For now, we will have to wait and see how Ukraine responds to the Kremlin's challenge. Read 'Zamin' on Telegram!