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Putin remains silent on Venezuela: What is the Kremlin's calculation?

Putin remains silent on Venezuela: What is the Kremlin's calculation?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet expressed a clear position against the backdrop of the United States' actions in Venezuela. According to The Moscow Times, in his first public appearance after the New Year holidays, Putin did not mention the capture of Nicolas Maduro by US troops during the ceremony of accepting credentials for foreign ambassadors in the Kremlin. However, he referred to Venezuela as Russia's "friend" and "trusted partner."

Notably, Putin did not comment on the arrest of tankers belonging to the Russian "secret fleet" used for transporting Venezuelan oil. That is, the range of topics is large, but the answer is silence.

A similar pause continued on January 15th: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that he hadn't spoken a word about Venezuela during the first New Year's briefing. This also reinforces the assumption that "it's not a coincidence, it's a plan."

In his address to the ambassadors, Putin drew a stronger general background: he said that the situation in the international arena "is worsening." According to him, instead of seeking consensus and compromise solutions, one-sided and dangerous actions are increasing, and communication between states is becoming more "monologue" - someone has come to believe that it is right to impose their will, "teach life," and give orders.

However, the lack of such harsh statements regarding Venezuela has increased questions among journalists and observers. Because the operation is said to have been against Maduro: the action against a person accused of organizing drug trafficking in the USA, who is threatened with life imprisonment, has caused outrage in Moscow. However, according to a source familiar with the situation told Bloomberg, relations with Washington are now more important to the Kremlin than Venezuela.

According to the source, the Kremlin does not perceive the loss of a friendly regime in Venezuela as a "catastrophe." At this point, the focus shifts to Iran: a Bloomberg interlocutor emphasizes that the situation around Iran is quite serious - it is also mentioned that Trump threatened to strike Tehran in support of protesters. Iran is one of Russia's largest military partners: it is said to have supplied $3 billion worth of missiles and drones since the start of the war in Ukraine. However, it is suggested that even in this case, Moscow may limit itself to verbal support without direct intervention.

German political scientist Felix Rifer also spoke about Russia's reserved attitude towards "American hints towards Venezuela" at a time when Trump's return to the White House and signs of "warming up" in Moscow-Washington relations are becoming apparent. He even made a sharp remark that "Russia actually handed over Maduro earlier." At the same time, Rifer emphasized the weakening of Russia's image in the international arena and concluded that "a person who relies on Russia cannot hope for their protection."

In conclusion, the silence in Moscow doesn't seem like a simple "no comment" - it's like a calculation. In this situation, the Kremlin, looking at the large picture, seems to be putting the Venezuelan issue on the scales of relations with Washington more lightly. But such an approach has a price: an ally who remains silent today may or may not appear as a "trusted hand" to others tomorrow.

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