The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has presented a new forecast for the national currency of Uzbekistan for 2026. According to the bank's analysis, the average annual exchange rate of the US dollar next year may be around 12,800 soums. These figures are provided in the EBRD's macroeconomic review covering 2026–2028.
Experts explain the relatively stable soum exchange rate by a number of factors. In particular, the high level of gold prices on the world market, the growth of export volumes and foreign exchange earnings from them play an important role. At the same time, remittances sent by citizens working abroad also serve as an additional support for the national currency.
In addition, bank experts emphasize that a tighter monetary policy is also one of the important factors supporting the soum. The measures taken by the Central Bank to control inflation will help limit sharp fluctuations in the national currency.
According to the EBRD forecasts, the inflation rate in Uzbekistan will also continue to decline. If current trends persist, inflation may be around 6.7 percent by the end of 2026. This will have a positive effect on the relative stability of the soum exchange rate.
At the same time, the bank does not rule out a gradual depreciation of the soum in the long term. According to the base scenario, the average annual exchange rate of the US dollar may reach 14,100 soums in 2027, and 15,100 soums by 2028.
Experts associate this process with inflation dynamics, changes in the structure of foreign trade, and global economic factors. Thus, although the soum exchange rate is expected to remain stable in the coming years, prudent financial planning will be more important than ever in the long term.
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