Can the US lose a war with China?

An article published in Foreign Affairs magazine states that the US is not adequately prepared for a potential war with China or another major power. According to Michael Brown, former director of the Pentagon's defense innovation unit, the US has insufficient ammunition reserves, and its ships and aircraft are outdated. The country lacks industrial capacity for the continuous supply of its armed forces. Additionally, America is falling behind China in military-technological innovations, notably in the mass production of affordable drones.

Brown identifies the primary cause as the US ceasing large-scale conflict preparations with peer rivals after the Cold War. American military strategists assumed future conflicts would be brief and local, secured through economic and technological superiority. However, today the possibility of a large-scale war with China, Russia, or Iran is becoming increasingly realistic.

According to Brown's calculations, if a large-scale conflict erupts in the Pacific region, the US would require five thousand high-precision long-range missiles per week. However, the US defense industry is unable to replenish these stocks promptly.

The average age of ships in the US Navy is 19 years, and Air Force aircraft average 32 years. In contrast, 70% of Chinese navy ships have been launched within the past 15 years, and China surpasses the US by 370 times in the rate of new ship construction.

In ammunition production, the US still relies on explosive materials developed during World War II and imports roughly a third of its necessary raw materials, including from China.

Brown argues that to address these shortcomings, the US must increase its defense budget. But this alone isn't enough—significant reforms in the Pentagon's procurement system are necessary. Specifically, reducing demands on defense contractors, establishing long-term contracts, and granting the Pentagon greater flexibility in managing budgetary funds are essential. Read 'Zamin' on Telegram!