Worrying news is coming from Russia’s economy. According to experts, the country’s budget may end with a higher deficit than originally planned.
The reason is the downward revision of GDP growth forecasts. This reduces the budget revenue base and may require additional resource mobilization.
According to Interfax, by the end of 2025 the federal budget of Russia may show a deficit higher than the currently planned 1.7% of GDP. A source familiar with the budget drafting process told journalists that this conclusion has already been raised.
“As for the deficit, in the spring (of this year — IF) we estimated it at 1.7% of GDP. It may turn out to be even higher. In my opinion, the economy is cooling down, growth rates are declining faster than expected. It could be above 1.7%,” he said.
According to him, due to lower GDP growth expectations, the budget revenue base is shrinking, which will require mobilizing additional resources.
“The economy is slowing down. Earlier, we expected growth of 1.5%, now this figure has dropped to 1.2%. The revenue base is also shrinking, so this year we are mobilizing resources and preparing next year’s budget accordingly,” he explained.
According to preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance, Russia’s federal budget deficit in January–July 2025 amounted to 4.879 trillion rubles, or 2.2% of GDP, exceeding the forecast for the year.
Initially, the law on the current year’s budget projected a deficit of 1.173 trillion rubles (0.5% of GDP). However, after spring amendments, this figure was raised to 3.792 trillion rubles (1.7% of GDP).
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