A new turn in US-Russian relations: can the decline in oil prices encourage the Kremlin to negotiate?

Following a significant drop in oil prices on the world market, US President Donald Trump expressed the opinion that this situation could lead to a softening of Russia's position in negotiations with Ukraine. According to Trump, the sharp decline in the oil market is causing serious financial losses for Moscow, and therefore Russia may be interested in resolving the conflict more quickly.

"I think that Russia is now closer to a compromise at the negotiating table, given the low oil prices. We have a good opportunity to resolve the conflict now, and they are also striving for it," the US president said in a statement to reporters.

At the same time, Trump added that Ukraine is also in favor of a speedy resolution of the conflict, and therefore looks forward to the end of the war.

However, in response to these comments, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected the idea that Moscow could soften its position. He said that for Russia, national interests prevail over any economic situation and market prices.

“Of course, oil prices on the international market are an important factor in the formation of our country's budget and will remain relevant. However, Russia's national interests will remain unchanged regardless of what these prices are,” Peskov said.

The Kremlin representative also announced that Russia will continue to work with OPEC+ countries to maintain oil prices on the world market at an optimal level. This level, he stressed, should not be too low or too high.

As is known, in March and May of this year, OPEC+ decided to significantly increase oil production. In March, daily production increased by 138 thousand barrels per day for the first time in three years, and on May 3, by another 411 thousand barrels. These figures were three times higher than the initial plan. According to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia is mainly behind this decision. The Saudi leadership is dissatisfied with the fact that OPEC+ countries are not fully complying with their oil production quotas and is trying to improve relations with the United States.

Thus, since the beginning of April, oil prices on the world market have fallen by more than 20 percent. In this situation, revenues to the Russian budget are also seriously reduced. According to the latest data from the Russian Ministry of Finance, the country's budget may lose 1.8 trillion rubles by the end of the year. This will lead to an increase in the state budget deficit to 1.7 percent of gross domestic product.

So far, the Kremlin has not officially announced how it will cover the budget losses. However, economic experts note that if the situation worsens, this may force Russia to reconsider its position in the international arena.

Thus, it is possible that a sharp drop in oil prices will have not only economic, but also geopolitical consequences. The international community is debating how quickly this situation will bring Russia to the negotiating table in peace talks with Ukraine.

How will the crisis in the oil market affect relations between Russia and the United States? Only time will tell. But for now, the decline in oil prices remains a serious signal for the Kremlin. Read 'Zamin' on Telegram!