In the next five years, local conflicts may escalate into major wars, according to forecasts by US intelligence and international experts. This conclusion was published in an analysis by Politico.
Experts believe that one of the most dangerous flashpoints remains the relationship between India and Pakistan. The long-standing conflict in Kashmir and both countries’ nuclear arsenals mean that the confrontation could have global consequences. Particularly worrying is Pakistan’s military doctrine, which sets a low threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.
China, meanwhile, may face the risk of two major conflicts simultaneously. The first scenario concerns Taiwan. Should escalation occur, it would become a turning point for the international system and a serious test of US guarantees to its allies.
The second potential hotspot is the border dispute between China and India, dating back to colonial times. The lack of effective de-escalation mechanisms and mutual distrust preserve the danger of escalation into a full-scale conflict.
Western analysts also consider the possibility of a hypothetical Russian attack on the Baltic states. Such a move would test NATO’s strength and pose a serious threat to European security.
North Korea is also highlighted as a risk. Analysts note that the instability of Kim Jong-un’s regime and its reliance on nuclear weapons could trigger a major regional crisis.
Thus, the points highlighted in Politico suggest the likelihood of new dangerous developments on the global stage. According to experts, if even one of these scenarios comes true, global security will face entirely new challenges.
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