After trading around January 25, the gold market broke historical boundaries: the price per ounce rose above $5,000 for the first time, reaching around $5,100 in some areas.
This jump is not accidental. Investors are again choosing gold as a "safe haven": geopolitical tensions, tariff and foreign policy risks surrounding the US administration, as well as the active replenishment of gold reserves by central banks, are pushing the price up. Expectations of a relative weakening of the dollar and the possibility of the Fed lowering the rate are also further heating up the demand for gold.
Another important point: today gold is becoming not only a "shelter in crisis," but also a means of portfolio insurance. That is, when stock/bond risks increase, people are directing money to gold through various channels - which accelerates each wave in the market.
What do the forecasts look like?
Julia Du, a senior commodity market strategist at ICBC Standard Bank, believes that the price of a ounce of gold could reach $7,150 in 2026. According to their calculations, the average price for 2026 is $6,050, and the probable range is around $4,100-7,150.
Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for December 2026 to $5,400. At the same time, the main "driver" is the acceleration of diversification by private investors through gold, including an increase in flows to gold-backed ETFs.
What does this mean?
In the current landscape, the idea that the price of gold is "truly high" plays a dual role:
- On the one hand, if the risks persist, high prices can become a new normal situation.
- On the other hand, it's natural for such rapid growth to be followed by a short-term "cold shower" - that is, a corrective action. But if the basics of demand (geopolitics, central bank purchases, interest rate expectations) are maintained, the declines often become a "window of opportunity" for new purchases.
In short: gold is now not just a metal - it is a thermometer of global nerves. If the global political and economic turmoil doesn't subside, 5,000 is likely to be the beginning of a new stage, not the "final."
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