Inconsistent statements from US President Donald Trump and the Pentagon are leaving both allies and financial markets with the question "when and how will this war end?" According to Axios analysis, the uncertainty surrounding the Iranian war has intensified against the backdrop of these confusing signals.
For example, on March 9, Trump said at the Republicans' annual meeting that the US "has already won," but "has not yet won enough." This statement was reportedly made shortly after he told CBS News that the war was "almost complete."
At the same time, Defense Minister Pete Heggett called March 10th "the most intense day of our strikes so far." This further emphasized the contradiction between the idea of the "end" and the statement of the "strongest blow."
Why is this dangerous? Because every unresolved week can exacerbate economic pressure within the US and destabilization in the Middle East - markets and the political arena are also concerned about this. Against this backdrop, Axios proposed five possible scenarios for the end of the war.
5 possible scenarios brought by Axios
1. A ceasefire through negotiations and a nuclear agreement
One of Trump's main goals is to limit Iran's nuclear program. According to Axios, there were indirect rounds of negotiations in Geneva before the war, and it was even said that the day before the war, Omani mediators gave a signal that "peace can be achieved." But subsequent events made this path foggy.
2. Venezuelan model
Trump is said to have cited the "Venezuela example" for Iran, but according to Axios estimates, equating Iran with Venezuela could lead to a misunderstanding of the Islamic Republic's complex power structure. Because there is an opinion that the system is based on institutions suitable for living longer than a single leader.
3. Popular uprising and the collapse of the regime
Axios writes that in this case, the factors of economic decline, mass protests, and political vacuum may appear "more realistic." But the main problem is the lack of a unified leadership, an organized structure, and a stable organized force on the ground. Therefore, this scenario is also considered highly risky.
4. Special forces raid and destruction of nuclear reserves
Axios reports that the US and Israel discussed the possibility of deploying special forces to take physical control of Iran's highly enriched uranium reserves or destroy them. This option is not a "political agreement," but a scenario for the violent elimination of the threat. But it's also the most risky way - because it means entering an area "where rockets are still firing."
5. Trump announces victory and leaves
In this scenario, Trump could declare a "historic victory" and halt the attack, believing Iran's missile and drone capabilities were sufficiently weakened. Markets, Axios says, are waiting for the "quick end." However, it is also noted that such an "early closure" may leave the risk of returning later.
Conclusion
The general opinion of Axios is as follows: if the war suddenly began on February 28, then its end could be just as "unexpected." However, as confusing statements continue, the most difficult thing for markets and allies remains the uncertainty itself, not a clear roadmap.
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