According to UN projections, the proportion of Uzbekistan's population residing in large cities (areas with over 50,000 inhabitants) is expected to grow from 43.8% in 2025 to 54.6% by 2050. This urban population growth will primarily result from migration from small and medium-sized cities, as well as rural areas with urban characteristics.
The share of people living in such areas is expected to decrease from 43.4% to 36.8%. The proportion of the population residing in rural areas is forecasted to drop to 8.7% by the middle of the century, a decline of approximately 4.1 percentage points from the current figures.
A similar trend is observed in Tajikistan, where the urban population in large cities is also projected to rise.
However, it is unlikely that this figure will exceed 50% in 2025. In Kazakhstan, the increase in the population of large cities is expected to be relatively moderate.
The share of people living in megacities is anticipated to grow from 41.1% to 50.3%. However, the decline in the population of small and medium-sized cities will not be significant.
Migration from rural areas will be the primary driver of urban population growth. In Kyrgyzstan, urbanization is expected to occur in a relatively balanced manner.
By 2050, the proportion of people living in large cities in Kyrgyzstan is projected to reach 43.4%. Growth will largely be fueled by population movement from small cities and a decrease in rural populations.
No significant centralization of large populations is anticipated. In Turkmenistan, changes are expected to occur at a slower pace.
The majority of the population will continue to reside in small and medium-sized cities. The growth in the population of large cities will be limited, and significant redistribution of the population across cities is not anticipated.
Users of Меҳмон are not allowed to comment this publication.
