According to UN projections, the proportion of Uzbekistan's population residing in large cities (areas with over 50,000 inhabitants) is expected to grow from 43.8% in 2025 to 54.6% by 2050. This urban population growth will primarily result from migration from small and medium-sized cities, as well as rural areas with urban characteristics.
The share of people living in such areas is expected to decrease from 43.4% to 36.8%. The proportion of the population residing in rural areas is forecasted to drop to 8.7% by the middle of the century, a decline of approximately 4.1 percentage points from the current figures.
A similar trend is observed in Tajikistan, where the urban population in large cities is also projected to rise.
However, it is unlikely that this figure will exceed 50% in 2025. In Kazakhstan, the increase in the population of large cities is expected to be relatively moderate.
The share of people living in megacities is anticipated to grow from 41.1% to 50.3%. However, the decline in the population of small and medium-sized cities will not be significant.
Migration from rural areas will be the primary driver of urban population growth. In Kyrgyzstan, urbanization is expected to occur in a relatively balanced manner.
By 2050, the proportion of people living in large cities in Kyrgyzstan is projected to reach 43.4%. Growth will largely be fueled by population movement from small cities and a decrease in rural populations.
No significant centralization of large populations is anticipated. In Turkmenistan, changes are expected to occur at a slower pace.
The majority of the population will continue to reside in small and medium-sized cities. The growth in the population of large cities will be limited, and significant redistribution of the population across cities is not anticipated.
