Why Has Arms Trade Between Russia and China Declined?

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Arms shipments from Russia to China have significantly decreased in recent years. According to the analytical center ChinaPower, from 2009 to 2023, China’s arms imports dropped by 40% compared to the previous 15-year period. Russia's share in these imports fell from 85% to 68%. This shift is attributed not only to Russia’s war in Ukraine but also to China's systematic copying of Russian weapon systems and extensive intellectual property violations.

Analysts note that over the past 20 years, at least 21 espionage and hacking incidents from China aimed at Russia's defense industry, particularly aerospace technologies, have been recorded. For example, in 2004, seven Russians were found guilty of passing secret aviation and satellite technology information to China. Between 2021 and 2023, four more cases involving leaks of aerospace and laser technology information were discovered.

However, espionage is only part of the issue. China has consistently violated licensing agreements with Russia, copying and adapting weapons systems for its own purposes. For instance, China's J-11 fighter jet was copied from Russia’s Su-27, and the HQ-9 anti-aircraft missile system was copied from the Russian S-300.

In 2019, Russia’s state corporation Rostec announced it had identified over 500 instances of unauthorized copying of weapons by China over a 17-year period. Rostec accused China of creating illegal analogs of aircraft engines, Sukhoi aircraft, naval fighter jets, air defense systems, and Pantsir anti-aircraft missile systems.

After China acquired these technologies, it drastically reduced arms purchases from Russia and began independently producing military equipment. However, dependence on Russia for aviation engines remains significant. From 2017 to 2023, engines accounted for nearly half of China's imported weapons, most of which came from Russia.

Currently, military relations between the two countries are evolving: Russia increasingly views China as a key supplier of spare parts and technologies. According to the U.S. National Intelligence Directorate, Chinese state-owned defense companies continue supplying Russia with dual-use products, such as semiconductors, drones, fighter jet spare parts, and electronic warfare equipment.

CNC (Computer Numerical Control) machines are particularly crucial, as they are necessary for military equipment production. Between January 2022 and July 2023, exports of these machines from China to Russia increased nearly tenfold, rising from $7 billion to $68 billion per month. China firmly denies supplying arms to Russia, yet practical data and analyses suggest otherwise. Notably, Russia now increasingly views China as its primary supplier of components.

A Lesson for Central Asia: Technology Should Reduce External Dependency

This situation is a warning not only for Russian-Chinese relations but also for other nations. Protecting technology, safeguarding intellectual property, and deeply analyzing real strategic interests are vital.

What do you think: Is China becoming a superpower by copying weapons? Has Russia transformed from a partner into a tool? Read 'Zamin' on Telegram!