Tensions between Moscow and Baku: Azerbaijan’s new independent path triggers alarming friction in Russia

In recent days, new problematic situations have been observed in relations between Azerbaijan and Russia. Moscow and Baku, once recognized for their mutual cooperation and trade ties, have, after recent events, moved on to openly accusing and criticizing each other.

For many years, Russia tried to maintain its influence over Azerbaijan not only economically but also politically. However, recent events show that this balance has changed. On June 27, during a large-scale raid on Azerbaijani citizens in Yekaterinburg, more than 50 people were detained by Russian police. During the migration operation, two people died, and several others were hospitalized with severe bodily injuries.

Azerbaijani official agencies demanded a thorough investigation of this situation, requested that the Russian government hold those responsible accountable, and strictly demanded compensation for the relatives of the victims. In addition, a special raid was carried out in the office of "Sputnik Azerbaijan", and two people were detained, further escalating relations between Baku and Moscow.

After the detention operation at this office, known as Russia's propaganda agency, Azerbaijani officials tried to present those detained as FSB agents. In response, several members of the Azerbaijani diaspora were also detained in Russia.

Negotiations and diplomatic disputes are following one after another. Russian officials described Baku’s sharp protest as a "demarche". Analysts note that this time Azerbaijan has entered into a serious confrontation, does not want to remain under Moscow’s influence, and is becoming a country with a real voice on the international stage.

Another reason for the growing tension is also noted as the air crash near Aktau, Kazakhstan, on December 25, 2024. An Embraer 190 aircraft belonging to Azerbaijan Airlines crashed, and many passengers and crew members died. After the crash, reports emerged that the aircraft was shot down by the Russian air defense system. This situation cast an even more serious shadow on Moscow-Baku relations — even the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev canceled his planned visit to Russia.

Azerbaijani officials continue to demand apologies from Russia for this tragedy, punishment of the guilty, and compensation for the relatives of the victims. At one time striving for joint actions on the international stage, the two countries, who signed a treaty of alliance on February 22, 2022, are today making claims against each other on various platforms.

Economically, Russia is one of Azerbaijan’s largest trading partners. In 2024, mutual trade turnover amounted to $4.8 billion. Russia exported $3.6 billion worth of goods to Azerbaijan, while importing $1.2 billion worth of goods from Azerbaijan. Russia is the third most important partner for Azerbaijan after Italy and Turkey. However, Azerbaijan's share in the Russian economy is only 0.6 percent.

According to experts, if Russia closes its markets, Azerbaijan will have to look for new export directions, which may lead to internal economic problems and rising unemployment. On the other hand, while Russia is under sanctions, it extensively uses the territory of Azerbaijan to export oil and gas to Europe, as well as to supply technical and industrial products. Rail and transit opportunities along the "North-South" international transport corridor also link the interests of the two countries.

From a geopolitical point of view, in recent years, Azerbaijan has increasingly demonstrated its independence and freedom in foreign policy. As noted by Maxim Trudolyubov, an expert at the Kennan Institute in Washington and other international analytical centers, Baku has ceased to play the role of a "small state dependent on the domestic market and ready to agree to anything". Now Azerbaijan does not hesitate to openly protest to Moscow and takes the necessary measures to resist its influence.

Analysts believe that for Russia, relations with Azerbaijan are important not only in terms of trade, but also politically, militarily, and in terms of transit. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is boldly stepping towards new markets, new partnerships, and geopolitical freedom. In this process, Moscow is also trying to give a strong "response" to its rivals in its sphere of influence, but the desire of post-Soviet states to pursue a new independent policy is increasing year by year.

According to international analysts such as Joshua Kucera, although Baku and Moscow stand ideologically united against Western influence, in reality, they are moving further and further apart. For Russia, Azerbaijan remains crucial in terms of technical and economic dependence. At the same time, Azerbaijan continues to expand its new opportunities.

Historically, allied treaties between the two countries have not always been implemented in practice. As economic closeness grows, political and diplomatic contradictions are also sharpening.

Thus, relations between Moscow and Baku have reached a new stage. Today, Azerbaijan is striving to make its voice heard not only in the region but also internationally. Russia, on the other hand, is clearly forced to take various measures to maintain its influence in this situation.

How this conflict will be resolved in the future and how this diplomatic “session” will end is of interest to the entire region and the world community. Zamin.uz will continue to promptly inform its readers of all important events and analysis throughout this process. Read 'Zamin' on Telegram!