According to a new study by Nobel Prize–winning economist Claudia Goldin, the global decline in birth rates is linked to women’s growing independence. The study notes that today many women build their lives without relying on a partner or government support, and this trend directly affects demographic indicators.
The researcher explains that as women gain greater access to education, career opportunities, and reproductive control, birth rates have declined. Unlike before, economic growth no longer leads to population increase — for example, birth rates in Sweden and the United States remain higher than in Greece or South Korea.
Today, more than half of the world’s countries have a fertility rate below 2.1 — the level required for natural population replacement. Notably, these countries account for nearly two-thirds of the planet’s population.
Goldin emphasizes that the main cause of the problem lies in the imbalance of expectations between men and women regarding household duties and childrearing. Women seek equality, while societies continue to favor traditional gender roles. This issue is especially evident in rapidly industrialized nations such as Japan, Korea, Italy, and Spain.
The study also notes that similar changes began in the United States as early as the 1970s. For instance, among women born in 1950 with a university degree, the average number of children dropped to 1.64.
According to Goldin, this trend stems from “structural barriers”: when governments fail to provide adequate childcare support, women tend to choose independent lives over family formation. Conversely, where such support exists, women become more active in the labor market and contribute to greater stability and equality within families.
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