The inflation rate in Uzbekistan is influenced by both supply and demand factors. According to the Central Bank's estimates, 49% of price increases are attributed to demand, while 51% are linked to supply.
In different years, various factors, including the pandemic and rising tariffs, have impacted inflation. During the pandemic, inflation was primarily driven by supply-related issues.
Disruptions in supply chains and the cessation of production led to an increase in food prices. The most significant price growth was observed in grains, flour, meat, and dairy products.
After restrictions were lifted, people began to spend more, leading to an increase in government expenditures and revenues. As a result, inflation was mainly attributed to demand factors.
In early 2021, the primary driver of the 10% annual inflation rate was the growth in demand. By mid-2022, the impact of demand on inflation began to diminish.
Price increases were often linked to rising utility and transport tariffs, as well as seasonal hikes in food prices. In the second half of 2023, approximately 70% of price increases were attributed to these factors.
In 2024, the inflation rate was around 10%. The main reasons were price increases in the service sector and the liberalization of energy tariffs.
At the same time, demand continued to play a significant role in both the food and non-food product segments.
Demand factors: These factors create a situation where both prices and consumption volumes grow simultaneously.
Supply factors: In this case, prices increase, but consumption decreases.
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