How could the world change if America goes to war with Iran?

In recent weeks, the conflict between the US and Iran has once again moved to the center of global politics. Donald Trump’s recent statements, the possibility of striking Iran’s nuclear facilities in alliance with Israel, and internal political confrontations in the country are making the situation even more complicated.

According to leading analysts in Washington, if America joins military actions against the Islamic Republic, this could turn into a wave of uncertainty and anxiety not only in the Middle East, but throughout the world. The destruction of Iran’s nuclear program may be seen as a political victory for Trump, but mistakes, real threats, and geopolitical consequences could trigger a new, protracted conflict for America that may last for many years.

There is also growing disagreement among Democrats and some Republicans who oppose Trump starting a war without the approval of Congress. For example, on June 17, a bill was introduced in Congress requiring Trump to obtain permission in advance. Through this, there is an intention to limit his ability to act independently. At the same time, some politicians, on the contrary, support Trump’s tough and fearless position.

Journalist Tucker Carlson demanded to avoid escalation, but Trump did not refrain from calling him “crazy.” Steve Bannon emphasized that the political consequences of war could be dangerous for the election campaign, as Trump has presented himself as a peacemaker and returned to the White House with the slogan “end all wars.”

The Iranian side is also responding with sharp statements. In the official statement of Ali Khamenei, it is said that any intervention by the US will be met with heavy and irreparable losses by Iran. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran also considers American intervention as a factor that could lead to a large-scale war.

According to analysts from RAND and Carnegie centers, Israel cannot independently strike underground nuclear facilities, as such well-protected sites require special bunker-buster bombs that only the US possesses. One such site is located in Fordow. This facility is built under thick layers, at a depth of 80 meters. In 2023, uranium enriched to 83.7% was found there — a level close to weapons grade.

Israel does not have the capability to reach such sites, so it is undoubtedly seeking help from the US. However, even if this facility is destroyed, analysts believe Iran can restore this program within 2 years. This could lead to exiting IAEA control, concealing infrastructure, and opening the way to even greater threats.

In the US, the signal sent to China and Russia through this intervention is also being considered. If America refuses to help Israel, Beijing may interpret this as meaning that Washington may also not protect Taiwan. This could deal a blow to the US’s international prestige, write The Wall Street Journal analysts.

Israeli officials, who are hoping for a regime change in Tehran through strikes on nuclear facilities, are openly stating this. America, however, is not openly supporting this idea for now, as it remembers that such actions in history have only strengthened anti-Islamic revolution and anti-American sentiment.

However, Washington’s inaction may also pose a threat to security. Remembering the consequences of the disorganized withdrawal from Afghanistan, America may choose a tougher position this time. Therefore, it is expected that Trump’s next step will affect not only Iran, but global politics as a whole.

According to analysts, if Tehran does not accept the terms of the agreement, the US and Israel are expected to take a tough stance. In this process, Trump emphasizes that he will not close diplomatic channels, but will participate in negotiations from a strong position. If negotiations do not yield results, warnings that “nothing will remain” of Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure could pose serious threats in the region.

Currently, the activities of Iran’s nuclear program are not limited and the risk level is high. This leaves Washington facing the main question on the world political stage: Will the US directly intervene in the conflict, or will it again choose the diplomatic path? Read 'Zamin' on Telegram!