Against the backdrop of bloody protests in Iran and sharp threats from Washington, the world was waiting for a new war to begin. However, US President Donald Trump recently abandoned the idea of launching a military attack on Tehran. The Washington Post and Axios, citing White House sources, have revealed the pragmatic reasons that prompted Trump to make this decision.
How the situation has changed: from passive demonstrations to bloody clashes
Initially, US intelligence did not consider the protests in Iran a serious threat to the regime. But by January 8, the situation escalated:
- Cruelty: The Iranian government shut down the internet and began shelling protesters en masse.
- Promise: On January 13, Trump openly called on protesters to overthrow the government, stating that "help is already on the way."
- Preparations: At the White House, plans to strike strategic targets using warships and submarines were placed on Trump's desk.
Three main factors that stopped the attack
What prevented Trump from giving orders? Analysts point to several important reasons:
- Secret negotiations: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Alokchi contacted US Special Representative Steve Whitkoff and promised to cancel the plan for the mass execution of protesters. This was a necessary pretext for Trump to "save his face."
- Allied Concerns: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel is not yet ready for a new war, while Saudi Arabia and Qatar held Washington back fearing instability in the region.
- Military power shortage: The Pentagon claims that the US main naval forces are currently being directed to the Caribbean basin to pressure Venezuela. The Middle East lacked sufficient resources to repel Iran's devastating counterattack.
Demonstration frustration and casualties
Trump's withdrawal was an unexpected blow to the opposition within Iran. Many protesters feel "sold."
- Anger: "Trump sold the lives of Iranian youth," say activists who fled to Turkey and Canada.
- Losses: According to the latest data from human rights defenders, the death toll in the clashes may have reached 5,000 people.
Conclusion: Reputation or peace?
The main argument for Trump was that striking doesn't guarantee the regime's collapse. The negative consequences of the military operation outweighed the potential benefits. However, experts believe that if Trump doesn't provide the promised help, he could become a "leader who incited people to demonstrations and then abandoned them."
Currently, the "war of words" between Ayatollah Khamenei and Trump continues. The military option is still on the table, but Washington has chosen a waiting and observation position for now.
In your opinion, is Trump's refusal to launch a military offensive the right decision, or will it allow the Iranian regime to become even stronger?
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