The Danish Military Intelligence Service (DDIS) has prepared a report warning about the risk of a "large-scale war" in Europe in the next 5 years. This was reported by Politico.
According to the intelligence forecast, Russia, considering NATO weak both militarily and politically, may use force against one or more of the alliance's countries. Particular attention is paid to the role of the United States in this.
“If Russia concludes that the United States is unable or unwilling to support its European allies in the event of an attack, the likelihood of a military conflict increases,” the report says.
It also notes that Moscow is actively building up its military capabilities to prepare for a possible confrontation with NATO. The document considers three possible scenarios for the development of events if the conflict is stopped or frozen. All options show that Russia is not capable of waging war against several countries at once.
The real military threat from Russia also depends on the development of the war in Ukraine, Danish intelligence believes.
Three scenarios for an attack
The authors of the report assess the attack scenario as follows:
- After the war in Ukraine ends, Russia could start a local armed conflict with an unnamed “neighboring state”;
- In about 2 years, it will pose a real threat to one or more NATO countries and thus be ready to wage war against several of the Baltic states;
- In 5 years, Russia may be able to wage a large-scale war on the European continent without US participation.”
The report does not take into account the possible strengthening of the defense capabilities of NATO countries.
US calls for increased NATO military spending
Donald Trump is demanding that NATO countries increase military spending to 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). According to current agreements, member states of the bloc must allocate at least 2 percent of GDP to defense, but by the end of 2024, only 23 of the 32 alliance countries had met this requirement.
During his first term as president, Trump has repeatedly threatened to pull the US out of NATO if European countries do not increase their defense spending. After winning the 2024 elections, he once again acknowledged the possibility of Washington leaving the alliance. However, he stressed that this could be avoided if European partners began to “pay their bills.”
In January, Reuters, citing sources, reported that NATO countries agreed on the need to increase defense spending, but considered the figure of 5 percent of GDP excessive.
An alternative option was to increase the minimum level of spending to 3 percent of GDP.
“But even such a step would be a serious test for many members of the alliance, which are struggling to reach the current 2 percent limit,” the report said.
The final decision on this matter is expected to be made at the NATO summit in The Hague in June. Follow “Zamin” news on “Telegram”
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