In recent years, turbulence — sharp fluctuations in air currents experienced during flights — has not only become more frequent but also more intense. Experts state that this phenomenon is directly linked to climate change, as rising global temperatures significantly affect winds and air movements in the atmosphere.
There are three main sources of atmospheric turbulence: convective (clouds and thunderstorms), orographic (air currents over mountainous areas), and clear-air turbulence (related to fast-moving winds in the upper atmosphere). The latter — clear-air turbulence — is considered the most dangerous, as it is invisible and hard to detect in advance.
According to forecasts by Professor Paul Williams of the University of Reading in England, the number of severe turbulence incidents will double or even triple in the coming decades. This will be especially noticeable on routes over the Atlantic Ocean and in parts of Asia and North America.
Official statistics show that since 2009, there have been over 200 cases of serious injury in the U.S., most of which involved crew members. In 2023, nearly 40 percent of serious passenger injuries worldwide were related to turbulence.
At the same time, experts emphasize that the threat to flight safety is not particularly high. Aircraft wings are highly flexible and can withstand even severe shaking. Nevertheless, it is recommended to keep your seatbelt fastened throughout the flight.
Modern technology and artificial intelligence have significantly improved turbulence forecasting. Various airlines are planning flight routes by taking turbulence-prone areas into account. Some are also taking preventive measures — for example, Southwest Airlines in the U.S. has started ending cabin service at higher altitudes, reducing the risk of injury.
In addition, new technologies — such as AI-based real-time wing movement control systems or the “turbulence suppression” system developed by Turbulence Solutions for light aircraft — may see wider use in the coming years.
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