Operation “Spider Web”: How will Russia respond?

It has been three days since Ukraine carried out the “Spider Web” operation across Russian military airfields. By this time, everything — from the route taken by the truck that brought the drones into Russian territory to satellite images of the burned-out airfields — has already been circulated. Russia’s response to this sensational operation remains one of the main topics of discussion in recent days.

Putin is silent

Whenever Ukraine achieves any kind of success on the front or in the war in general, Russians typically await Vladimir Putin’s response. But those who have observed Vladimir Vladimirovich’s actions for many years know that external factors hardly ever influence his decision-making.

Putin might very well order a nuclear strike across Ukraine as some Russians dream of — but no action from Kyiv can force him to do so. Putin views responding to something Ukraine does as an act of "acknowledging" them. And President Putin does not deem it appropriate to acknowledge Zelensky-led Ukrainians.

So far, Putin has made no comment regarding Ukraine’s destruction of Russia’s strategic bombers with "toy drones". For example, after the operation, the Russian president congratulated Nikol Pashinyan on his birthday, sent congratulations on the 70th anniversary of the Baikonur Cosmodrome, and held meetings with Russia’s children’s rights ombudsman and the minister of natural resources. Topics discussed included climate adaptation of forestry and the handling of municipal waste.

For those expecting Putin to go live on TV right after the Ukrainian attacks and say, “Now we’ll do this,” or “Now we’ll launch such-and-such a missile,” — they simply don’t know Putin well. He never acts that way. He is far colder and more calculating than people imagine. For Putin, the biggest taboo is to admit that an enemy has provoked him. After all, even when the Crimean Bridge was blown up on his birthday, he remained calm.

“A nuclear strike is needed”

Russian society took the “Spider Web” operation painfully. It was more of a psychological blow. Because after Ukraine inflicted $7 billion in damage to Russian aviation using cheap drones, bread, meat, eggs, buckwheat, or vodka prices in Russia didn’t rise. Salaries were still paid on time. Cities remained safe — at least compared to Ukrainian cities.

In general, this operation did not drastically change the everyday life of Russians. But these peaceful people, who for years heard the same rhetoric on TV, had gotten used to saying that Ukrainians “aren’t even a nation,” and Ukraine is a “fake state.” When the war started, they argued with their anti-war friends: “NATO and the US are fighting against Russia, Ukraine can’t do anything.” But now, six months into Trump’s return, Ukraine is waging war alone against its giant neighbor — and even with cheap “toy drones,” it managed to destroy strategic Russian bombers.

Yes, the representatives of that very “fake state” — who are belittled from Russia’s highest podiums — dealt a massive psychological blow to Russian society.

As a result, Russians are now demanding a nuclear strike from their “supreme leader.” Yes, such calls have echoed many times since the grim February 24th (2022), but this time they are louder than ever. Recently, Putin said in an interview with Pavel Zarubin that Russia “had no need” to use nuclear weapons and added, “perhaps still doesn’t.” But that was when Russia was in a relatively stronger position. The “Spider Web” operation, much like the Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kherson and Kharkiv, temporarily placed Ukraine — militarily weaker — in a psychologically superior position at the negotiating table.

To put it in football terms: a team reduced to eight men on the field, barely standing with only a defender left at goal, still managed to equalize from a corner kick against a powerful, energetic Russia. Yes, in the remaining minutes, Ukraine likely won’t be able to hold the score — but at this moment, the scoreboard shows a tie, and psychological dominance is with Kyiv. That’s roughly the situation on the warfront right now…

Will there be a response?

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev posted on his Telegram channel: “To everyone waiting for revenge,” he began. “Everything that needs to be blown up — will be blown up. Those who must be eliminated — will be eliminated,” Medvedev said.

If you noticed, even Medvedev responded to the “Spider Web” operation rather calmly.

A day after the attack, Russia, for the first time since the war began, launched its “Kinzhal” missile at Ukraine. This is one of the most feared missiles in Russia’s arsenal, usually carried by strategic aircraft. With this strike, Russia seemed to be signaling: “Our strategic aviation is still intact.”

However, that “Kinzhal” strike didn’t satisfy the pro-war voices. Therefore, there is a strong possibility of a retaliatory strike on Kyiv. At least to appease the ultra-patriots. Perhaps, somewhere, they’ll launch the "Oreshnik" missile, which Russians are fond of using. But a nuclear strike is highly unlikely — because Putin doesn’t want to complicate a war that he still believes can be settled to his advantage through negotiations.

Read 'Zamin' on Telegram!