Significant changes have been observed in Uzbekistan's currency market in recent days. According to the official exchange rate announced by the Central Bank on June 19, the value of the US dollar has decreased for the third consecutive trading day, reaching 12,618.6 soums. This is the lowest rate recorded since August 7, 2024.
The devaluation of the dollar against the soum is also reflected in daily trading. Specifically, based on the results of June 18, the dollar fell by another 49.5 soums, dropping from the previous rate of 12,760.2 soums to 12,618.6 soums. In total, over the past three days, the dollar's value has decreased by 141.6 soums (that is, by 1.1%).
This figure indicates that the dollar has fallen this low for the first time in the last 10 months. The previous lowest rate was recorded on August 7, 2024, when the official rate was 12,615.9 soums.
It is assumed that several economic factors are behind such changes in the currency market. According to experts, the strengthening of the soum is due to several positive economic trends, including:
1. An increase in remittance flows from abroad;
2. A rise in the volume of direct foreign investments;
3. Stabilization of the currencies of Uzbekistan’s main trading partners;
4. The rise in global gold prices positively influencing exports.
Amid these factors, the strengthening of the soum’s position is viewed as a natural process. On the other hand, it indicates growing macroeconomic stability in the national economy.
This strengthening of the soum has been recorded for the first time since the beginning of 2024. According to statistics, since the beginning of the year, the national currency has strengthened by 2.2% against the US dollar. In contrast, during the same period last year (in 2024), the soum had devalued by 2.2%, showing a completely opposite trend.
The relative devaluation of the dollar is also observed in the interbank trading market. As of June 18, some commercial banks are buying the dollar at a rate of 12,710 soums, and three other banks at 12,720 soums. This practical reality could change public activity in buying and selling dollars.
The stability of the currency market increases investor and public confidence. A stable soum leads to a decrease in import costs, containment of inflation, and stabilization of prices for goods and services. In turn, this positively affects economic growth rates.
Experts are also approaching forecasts for future dollar movements with caution. External market conditions, decisions of the Federal Reserve System, commodity prices, and other geo-economic factors continue to directly influence the dollar’s value in Uzbekistan. Read 'Zamin' on Telegram!
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