Geopolitical games in the Middle East have entered a new and complex phase. Although at first glance it seems a truce has been reached between the US and Iran, in reality, events are unfolding according to the rules of 'Persian chess'. Zamin.uz analyzes the true picture behind the scenes of this political conflict.
Truce or the eve of a new confrontation?
Last week, it was announced that a ceasefire agreement had been reached between Washington and Tehran. Hearing Donald Trump's statements, a supporter might think Iran has raised a 'white flag' and surrendered. However, reality is entirely different: the seizure of an Iranian ship by the US in the Strait of Hormuz and, in response, the Iranian drone attack on an American warship show that the situation is still on the verge of explosion. Tehran is not even ruling out the possibility of refusing further negotiations.
Is the 'Russia-Ukraine' scenario repeating?
The current situation is in many ways similar to Russia's failed 'blitzkrieg' in Ukraine. Russia, which aimed to subdue Kyiv in three days, has been forced to build bomb shelters within its own borders for a year. The US also appears to have entered a similarly long and complex process regarding Iran.
Political scientist's view: 'Trump is being fooled'
Renowned political scientist Arkady Dubnov gave a very precise description of the situation: 'The Iranians are returning Trump's threats like a boomerang, as if mocking the powerful American president. Persian chess is weighing down Trump.' Indeed, Iran is fighting an opponent many times stronger than itself through a 'strategy of complexity'. With one hand, it appears to agree to terms at the negotiation table; with the other, it launches a single ship into the sea, shattering all of Washington's plans.
Why is the US helpless against 'complexity'?
The American army is unparalleled in destroying clear enemies, demolishing military facilities, and in technical superiority. However, there is no military formula or plan against a 'strategy of complexity'. Iran is gaining time by prolonging negotiations as much as possible.
Trump's pressure: He is concerned about public discontent ahead of the 350 million voters, the upcoming midterm elections, and major sporting events held in the US.
Iran's composure: The Tehran regime has established total control over the population, and there is virtually no public pressure on them.
History and the school of statehood
Trump seems to have forgotten an important aspect: for ancient centers of statehood like Iran, America and Israel are 'yesterday's' states. Persians have accumulated vast experience throughout their history in surviving and turning any war scenario to their advantage. For them, war is not just launching missiles, but chess requiring high skill.
Dear readers, in your opinion, will Trump be checkmated in 'Persian chess', or will he find another way to rectify the situation? Is the US military might capable of overcoming political complexity?
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