The geopolitical storm in the Middle East is shaking not only regional borders, but also the delicate veins of the world economy. Every missile strike across the ocean and in the Persian Gulf will inevitably affect the market of Central Asia, in particular Uzbekistan. Based on expert analysis, Zamin.uz studied the impact of this conflict on our wallet.
The world economy is closely interconnected. The Middle East is the planet's main energy source. Instability there will affect the economy of Uzbekistan in three main directions:
1. Oil prices and "import inflation"
Attacks on oil facilities in Iran and Saudi Arabia will inevitably dramatically increase the price of "black gold" on the world market.
- Impact: Uzbekistan imports some of its fuel products from abroad. The rise in gasoline and diesel prices increases transportation costs.
- Consequence: This leads to an increase in food and other product prices in the markets, that is, inflation.
2. Gold - "safety belt" of Uzbekistan
During times of war and instability, investors strive to buy gold to save their money. As a result, the price of gold will rise to record levels.
- Benefits for us: Uzbekistan is one of the world's largest gold exporters. An increase in the price of gold will bring additional income to the country's gross domestic product and the state budget.
- Stability: This factor serves as a "shield" against the sharp devaluation of our national currency - the soum.
3. Dollar exchange rate and foreign exchange market
During the period of uncertainty in the international arena, the US dollar will strengthen around the world as a "safe currency."
- Local situation: Demand for dollars in Uzbekistan may increase. However, given the Central Bank's sufficient gold and foreign currency reserves, it is assumed that there will be no sharp jumps.
- Forecast: If the conflict continues for a long time, the dollar's exchange rate against the sum may continue to rise gradually, but this process will be under control.
Logistics and Foreign Trade
Uzbekistan's plans to transport goods through southern routes (Iranian ports) may be temporarily suspended. This forces entrepreneurs to choose alternative, but more expensive routes - Northern or Trans-Caspian.
In your opinion, in the current situation, in what form is it better to keep funds: gold, foreign currency, or real estate?
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