Almost all experts are pointing to Fabiano Caruana as the main favorite ahead of the Candidates Tournament. But the "favorite" label is both a compliment and a burden. Caruana himself didn't soften the situation: for him, in the Candidates Tournament, there's only one goal – to win.
According to him, compared to previous Candidates Tournaments, the gap in preparation level between the participants has narrowed significantly. Almost everyone is at a consistently high level. Therefore, now fate will be decided not by who "prepared better," but by other minor factors: form, nerves, clarity in one or two positions, the ability to read the situation, the ability to avoid mistakes.
Caruana, analyzing his opponents, weighed each one – who has the greatest potential, who is dangerous as a "spoiler," and who, despite participating in the tournament, has a smaller chance of becoming champion.
Caruana's Assessment of Opponents
Praggnananda
Caruana highly rates him. Acknowledging that the last six months haven't been his most successful period, he notes that victories in major tournaments last year showed his true strength. For Caruana, a "result in a major tournament" is more important than the current rating.
Anish Giri
He describes him as "a very deeply thinking, strategically strong chess player." But Caruana is troubled by one question: can Giri win enough games to win the tournament? He rates his potential as slightly higher than Wei Yi and lower than Praggnananda.
Wei Yi
He says it's difficult to evaluate him. Sometimes his game seems very precise and "close to ideal," but the lack of major tournament victories raises questions.
Esipenko
Caruana respects his game, but notes that he can't be called the "main favorite" in terms of rating and prize money. Nevertheless, he considers him very dangerous: he may not win the tournament himself, but he can significantly influence the results of others.
Blubaugh
Here's the "spoiler" scenario as well: he may show a good result, but his chances of winning the tournament are limited. Caruana doesn't hide the fact that he objectively assesses his chances of winning as lower.
Sindarov
For Caruana, this is one of the most interesting and dangerous names. In his opinion, Sindarov really can win the tournament: he is dangerous, aggressive, and has a "killer instinct." Despite his lack of experience, Caruana doesn't always consider this a disadvantage: he recalls that he himself was without much experience at his first Candidates Tournament, but fought for first place. He rates Sindarov's potential as comparable to Giri or slightly higher.
Hikaru Nakamura
Caruana puts Nakamura in the same tier as Praggnananda: he knows how to win a tournament and is one of the most experienced participants. He recalls that last time he was close to a decisive opportunity against Caruana in the final round. The conclusion is one: Nakamura could well become a champion.
In conclusion, Caruana is clear: although he is called the "favorite," he doesn't give himself any leeway – he acknowledges that it will be difficult. But he still retains the classic mentality: when you come to the Candidates Tournament, there's only one goal – to fight to the end for victory.
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