In Kazakhstan, the population exceeded 20 million, but the provinces began to empty

The population of Kazakhstan reached 20 million 353 thousand people as of May 1, 2025. This was reported by the country's National Bureau of Statistics. Since January, the population has increased by 0.34% overall, but this growth is not uniform - in some regions the population is decreasing sharply.

Population is decreasing in regions

In 11 regions of Kazakhstan, a decrease in the population was recorded in the first four months of 2025. This is the worst demographic indicator observed in the last year.

The regions with the largest population decline are:
- North Kazakhstan region - 0.52%
- Abai region - 0.34%
- Zhetysu region - 0.3%

At the same time, a natural decrease - that is, the number of deaths exceeds births - was observed in East Kazakhstan and North Kazakhstan regions. This situation, according to experts, indicates a demographic crisis in the regions.

Migration flow: cities are growing, villages are emptying

The gap between the urban and rural population in Kazakhstan is also widening. According to the results of January-April:
- Urban population - increased by 0.66%
- Rural population - decreased by 0.18%

Currently, 63.2% of the country's population lives in cities, and 36.8% in rural areas.

Astana, Shymkent and Almaty - are becoming demographic centers

Population growth is mainly observed in large cities:
- Astana - 1.95%
- Shymkent - 1.2%
- Almaty - 0.79%

These indicators are several times higher than the overall growth rate of the country. Experts say that internal migration to large cities depends on jobs, education and infrastructure.

The migration balance is positive only in Astana, Almaty, Shymkent and Mangistau regions. In all other regions, the number of people leaving is higher than those arriving.

Growth is taking a “one-sided” form
Some regions have almost no population growth. For example:
- Akmola region
- Kyzylorda region

In these regions, growth was very slow or non-existent.

Sharp imbalances are emerging in Kazakhstan’s demographics. The fact that the population is decreasing in rural areas and in some regions, and internal migration is concentrated only around large cities, can lead to long-term economic and social problems.

These data indicate the need for the Kazakh government to find new strategic solutions for regional development and retaining the population in their places.

Photo: Janara Karimova