Will Iran strike Ukraine with ballistic missiles? Geopolitical tension
Following the death of a sailor in an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on an Iranian merchant ship in the Caspian Sea, relations between Tehran and Kyiv have reached a peak level of tension. Iran to Ukraine warns that it could launch a direct retaliatory strike with ballistic missiles from its own territory.
Zamin.uz Based on the analysis of Ukrainian publications "Defense Express" and "Strana", presents the most important details of this military-political crisis.
1. Tragedy in the Caspian: Mutual statements of Tehran and Kyiv
The death of a sailor as a result of an attack on an Iranian merchant ship in the Caspian Sea caused a sharp and panicked reaction in Tehran. An Iranian Foreign Ministry official warned Kyiv of serious consequences.
From the statement of Iranian Foreign Ministry representative Esmaeil Baghaei:
"The actions of Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy could push the whole world to the brink of a new world war. Tehran will not leave these actions unanswered."
In response, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha expressed Kyiv's official position, emphasizing that Tehran "has long been an active partner in Russia's aggression against Ukraine."
2. From 2,000 to 4,000 km: The threat of Iran's ballistic arsenal
According to the analysis of Ukrainian publications "Defense Express" and "Strana", Tehran has the intellectual and military capability to launch a direct strike on Ukrainian territory using its medium- and long-range ballistic missiles:
Ghadr, Emad, and Sejjil: These missiles are approximately 2,000 km capable of destroying targets at a distance of up to.
Khorramshahr: As the heaviest and longest-range missile in Iran's arsenal, during strikes against Israel it 4,000 km proved in practice that it can fly up to a distance.
3. Ukraine's air defense system: Can Patriot intercept missiles?
Military experts note that Ukraine's current air and missile defense system may be powerless against such heavy ballistic missiles.
Patriot systems: Have extremely limited capabilities against Iran's medium- and long-range heavy ballistic missiles.
THAAD and Arrow systems: These modern defense systems capable of effectively intercepting such missiles are completely absent in Ukraine's arsenal.
Comparative indicators of Iranian missiles and defense systems
Missile / System name | Flight range | Status in Ukraine / Capability |
Ghadr, Emad, Sejjil | ~2,000 km | Very limited interception capability via Patriot |
Khorramshahr | ~4,000 km | High target hit rate, difficult to defend against |
THAAD / Arrow | — | These defense systems in Ukraine are not available |
4. What is the state of Iran's missile reserves?
"Defense Express" notes that Iran's medium-range missile reserves have significantly decreased over the past year. This is due to two main factors:
The expenditure of a large amount of the arsenal during massive missile strikes on Israeli territory.
Precise airstrikes by the US and Israel on launch pads, arms depots, and production facilities in Iran.
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