According to The Moscow Times, the Kremlin still aims to establish a government in Ukraine that accepts its terms and is subservient to Moscow. Despite the start of negotiations with the United States, the Kremlin is aiming to achieve maximalist goals in the war.
Kremlin goals
The Kremlin's ultimate goal is the complete surrender of the Ukrainian government and a change of power in Kiev. Moscow intends to reshape Ukrainian statehood and turn the country into a "modern Belarus." If this does not happen, the Kremlin wants to establish full control over at least the four regions occupied by Russia. At the same time, limiting Kiev's political and military independence remains one of the main goals.
However, this scenario seems unlikely to materialize for now, as Russia still does not have full control over the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia regions. Zelensky's unwillingness to voluntarily cede these territories also poses a problem for the Kremlin.
The Kremlin's third scenario
The Kremlin aims to weaken Zelensky's position in the eyes of Trump by portraying him as a leader incapable of negotiating. According to sources close to the Kremlin, the current strategic goal is to increase pressure from Washington on Kiev and force Zelensky to hold presidential elections.
The Kremlin is considering removing Zelensky from office, given that he will not agree to any territorial concessions. According to sources, Putin harbors a personal enmity towards Zelensky and considers his continued presence in the political arena to be contrary to Russia's interests. Therefore, the Kremlin is trying to promote Zelensky's illegitimacy and the need for elections.
Putin's game with Biden and Trump
Putin on Friday demanded the introduction of external governance in Ukraine under the auspices of the UN and the US. The statement was made aboard the Russian nuclear submarine Arkhangelsk. The Kremlin aimed to send a strong signal to Kiev and the West with this move.
The Kremlin believes that Zelensky has no chance of re-election and is looking for evidence to convince the US that a change of power in Ukraine is necessary. According to Kremlin diplomats, Putin is not ready to make any concessions while Zelensky is in power. This would portray any agreement as a victory for Zelensky, which is completely unacceptable for the Kremlin.
Putin's attitude towards Ukraine
Political analysts consider the Kremlin's demand for the introduction of external governance in Ukraine an attempt to view the country as a "failed state". However, in international practice, the UN has never imposed external governance on such countries.
The Kremlin is taking symbolic steps to keep Trump interested. One example is the attempt to revive the Black Sea grain deal. But this deal has not brought the expected results, as Ukraine continues to supply grain to the West through other routes.
The Kremlin has made the removal of Zelensky from power and the formation of a pro-Moscow government in Ukraine one of its main goals. The Kremlin's strategy is aimed at inciting Washington to pressure Kiev and exerting influence in Ukraine by removing Zelensky from power. However, the Kremlin may face significant diplomatic and military obstacles to achieving these goals.
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