The American "peace plan": what promises for Ukraine, what achievements for Russia?

According to information published by Axios, the US government has proposed an official “peace plan” to end the war in Ukraine. According to it, Crimea will be officially recognized as Russian territory, and control over most of the territories occupied by Russia after 2022 will be “de facto” ratified.

What is the US offering at the London talks?

According to Washington’s plan, Ukraine could receive the following:
1. Security guarantees — special peacekeeping forces with the participation of European countries and, possibly, other neutral countries. (However, how the mechanism will work is not yet disclosed in the document.)
2. The return of a small territory occupied by Russia in the Kharkiv region.
3. Unhindered access to the Dnieper River will be granted.
4. Assistance for reconstruction and compensation — but the sources of funding are unknown.
5. The Zaporozhye NPP will be considered Ukrainian territory, but it will be proposed to be operated under US control. Electricity will be supplied to both Ukraine and Russia.
6. US-Ukrainian cooperation on mineral resources will be established.

What will Russia achieve?

In Washington's scenario, Moscow will be given the following options:
1. Crimea will be officially recognized as Russian territory "de jure".
2. The occupied territories in the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions will be ratified "de facto".
3. Ukraine will be promised that it will not join NATO, but it may join the European Union.
4. Sanctions imposed since 2014 will be lifted.
5. US-Russian economic ties will be expanded, especially in the energy and industrial sectors.

How does Kiev view the proposal?

According to Axios, Ukrainian officials see the proposal as very attractive to Russian interests. A source in Kiev said:

“It’s clear what the benefits are for Russia, but it’s unclear what the benefits are for Ukraine.”

Following this information, Ukraine is not expected to discuss the plan at the London talks. A US official said that in the last 24 hours, Kiev has signaled that it will focus on a 30-day ceasefire.

It turns out that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has decided not to go to London, and instead a delegation will conduct negotiations with his counterparts in the UK and Ukraine.

Conclusion: A fair deal or a political maneuver?

This “peace plan” offers Russia concrete gains, while Ukraine offers various vague and conditional promises. The recognition of Crimea, the withdrawal from NATO and the absolute lack of security guarantees are a serious concern for Ukraine.

What do you think - should Ukraine accept this plan? Or is it a geopolitical victory for the Kremlin, pressure on Kiev? Read 'Zamin' on Telegram!