Syrsky Names Russia's Potential New Direction

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky shared his assessment of Russia's next potential move in the war.

In his view, rather than attacking Kyiv via Belarus, a more realistic option is for Russia to move toward northern Ukraine—the Chernihiv direction—from the Bryansk region.

No troop buildup observed on the Belarus border

In an interview with the "1+1" TV channel, Syrsky answered a question about the development of military infrastructure on the Belarus-Ukraine border.

According to him, no large-scale buildup of Russian troops has been observed in this direction so far.

However, according to Ukrainian intelligence, Moscow is studying various attack scenarios, including the possibility of using Belarusian territory.

"We know that Putin has tasked the Russian General Staff with considering various options for an offensive operation, including the possibility of attacking Kyiv from Belarusian territory," Syrsky said.

Is an attack on Kyiv via Belarus realistic?

The Ukrainian commander stated that he does not consider this scenario realistic for now.

"I do not think the Belarusian leadership will agree to provide its territory as a bridgehead for the aggressor's offensive operation," he said.

Syrsky did not specify what he meant by "recent events." The text notes that this may be related to territories seized by Ukraine and intensive drone strikes directed inside Russia.

The most likely direction — Chernihiv

Syrsky assessed the option of Russia attacking northern Ukraine from the Bryansk region as more serious.

"A relatively likely option is an attack on the north of the country from the territory of Russia's Bryansk region. This is a realistic option, and we are preparing for it," he said.

When the journalist asked if there could be an attack on Kyiv, Syrsky replied:

"No, not on Kyiv, but on the Chernihiv region."

What could be the goal of the attack?

According to the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief, the main goals of a potential operation could be as follows:

• Seizing certain areas on the Ukrainian border;

• Opening a new front line in the north;

• Forcing the Ukrainian command to withdraw some forces from the Donbas;

• Splitting Ukrainian defense resources across several directions.

At the same time, Syrsky emphasized that conducting a large-scale attack in the Chernihiv direction is not easy.

Terrain is difficult for heavy equipment

Northern Ukraine has many swamps and forests. The road network is limited.

According to Syrsky, in this area:

• movement of heavy armored vehicles is difficult;

• there are few bridges capable of carrying heavy loads;

• it is difficult to maintain the pace of a large-scale offensive;

• forests are suitable for raids by small groups.

Therefore, a rapid advance with a large force may be difficult, but there is a possibility of increased activity from small sabotage and reconnaissance groups.

Pressure on Minsk reported

The Wall Street Journal previously reported that Moscow is pressuring the Belarusian leadership to expand new attack opportunities.

Additionally, it was noted that in May, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with Aleksandr Lukashenko by phone, calling on Belarus not to join the war.

Lukashenko, meanwhile, emphasized several times during June that Belarus should not be drawn into the war.

The issue of border repeaters

The text notes that Lukashenko complied with Volodymyr Zelenskyy's demand to turn off border repeaters used to guide Russian strikes.

Syrsky, however, stated that these devices have not yet been fully dismantled.

According to him, one of the repeaters was activated again on June 29.

"I think they won't turn them on anymore. They understand they shouldn't do this," Syrsky said.

Russian activity has decreased, but the situation remains grave

Assessing the general situation at the front, Syrsky said that the activity of Russian troops has decreased recently.

"I wouldn't say by half, but it has clearly decreased by a third," he said.

Additionally, the number of directions where Russia is attempting active attacks has decreased.

Despite this, the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief emphasized that the situation at the front remains complex.

According to Syrsky's statement, the Ukrainian command takes the potential threat in the northern direction seriously and is preparing against it.