Since 2022, when the large-scale war with Russia began, Ukraine’s population has suffered a significant blow. By mid-2024, in the territories controlled by Kyiv, the population decreased from 40 million to 31.1 million. That is, in just 2.5 years, the country’s population shrank by 10 million people. These figures remind that after Ukraine declared independence in the 1990s, its population exceeded 50 million.
Journalists note that the main reason for the population decline was the mass departure of Ukrainians abroad due to the war. Currently, more than 5 million citizens have left the country, mainly residing in European countries — Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic, Italy, and Spain.
Every year, despite the fact that a large number of migrants want to return to their homeland, especially among men of conscription age, their number is significantly decreasing. Officials are trying to encourage people to return through employment, housing, mobilization, and preferential programs, but millions of Ukrainians continue to build a new life in other countries.
The greatest population loss is observed in areas close to the front. Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv regions have lost a significant part of their population. In settlements near the front line, mostly elderly people remain.
Moreover, due to the war, constant stress, and weakened medical system, mortality is increasing. In 2023, about 495 thousand deaths were recorded, three times higher than pre-war figures and almost three times higher than the birth rate.
This year, the fewest children in the state’s history were born — 180 thousand. The population is also noticeably aging: if the share of children under 18 is 15%, those aged 60 and older already account for 27%.
In 2024, the government approved the demographic development strategy until 2040 and a plan for 2024–2027. However, as journalists note, child birth payments are rapidly depreciating due to inflation, and infrastructure projects are slowly being implemented.
According to data, if current trends continue, by 2041 Ukraine’s population may decrease by another 10 million, to 29 million people. Growth is possible only after the war ends, migrants return home, birth rates increase, and decent living conditions are created in the country.
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