The 2026 World Cup qualifying round in Asia is in full swing. We Global Football has estimated the chances of national teams qualifying for the tournament in the Americas, and has given Uzbekistan a 92.6 percent chance of qualifying for the World Cup. From the outside, it looks simple. If Uzbekistan wins its next three matches, it will qualify for the World Cup for the first time in its history. But what is the situation in reality, is everything as easy as we think? Let's take a look at the chances of Temur Kapadze's team.
First, let's look at the tournament table. After the 7th round, Iran is leading Group A. The Persians are currently 99% certain of qualifying for the World Cup with 19 points. A draw against Uzbekistan in the 8th round will also qualify Iran for the World Cup in the Americas. Uzbekistan is in 2nd place with 16 points. The team has 5 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the remaining 7 rounds. The UAE and Qatar, with 10 points, are in 3rd and 4th place, respectively. The Kyrgyz Republic (3 points) and North Korea (2 points) are in last place as outsiders.
Photo: UzPFL
What is Uzbekistan's next schedule?
The Uzbekistan national team has 3 important matches ahead of them.
- March 25 Iran — Uzbekistan
- June 5 UAE — Uzbekistan
- June 10 Uzbekistan — Qatar
It is clear that all three matches awaiting Temur Kapadze's team are of great importance. This is because the two remaining teams, apart from Iran, are competing with Uzbekistan for a direct qualification to the World Cup. If our team loses in Iran on March 25 and the UAE and Qatar win their matches, their motivation may double. This is because the next schedule of the opponents, especially the Emirati team, is relatively easy. We will see.
UAE team schedule:
- March 25 North Korea — UAE
- June 5 UAE — Uzbekistan
- June 10 Kyrgyzstan — UAE
Qatar team schedule:
- March 25 Kyrgyzstan — Qatar
- June 5 Qatar — Iran
- June 10 Uzbekistan — Qatar
It is clear that the UAE has the easiest schedule among the teams fighting for second place. They play against the group outsiders twice and host Uzbekistan once at home. The situation in Qatar is complicated. They first travel to Kyrgyzstan, and in the remaining two matches they play against the group leaders.
What are the chances?
Of course, Uzbekistan has a chance. Many things will be clear in the match against Iran on March 25. For example, if Uzbekistan loses away and the UAE beats North Korea and Qatar beats Kyrgyzstan, the difference between our representatives and the opponents will be 3 points. The next matches will be a matter of life and death for Temur Kapadze.
The reason is that the team will travel to the Emirates in the 9th round. If we win or draw, it will be good. But if we miss the opportunity, there will be a great chance to take second place in the UAE. Because both teams will have 16 points, but the Emirati team has a better goal difference - +6. In Uzbekistan, this indicator will be +4. Then we will need to win the match against Qatar in the last round by a large margin, because our opponent, the UAE, will travel to Kyrgyzstan and it is no secret that they are ready to do everything to win this match.
Photo: UFA
Qatar also has a chance. They will travel to Kyrgyzstan on March 25. If they return from Bishkek with a win, they will host Iran in Doha on June 5. If Iran decides to qualify for the World Cup by that match, the Qataris will most likely try to win and come to Tashkent in the last round. If Qatar comes without losses by this match, it may be a little difficult for Temur Kapadze's team.
A good scenario for Uzbekistan
As journalist Khushnudbek Khudoiberdiev said, there are also good scenarios. For example, Uzbekistan does not have to win the remaining three matches. Even if the team loses in Iran, it is okay. The main thing is to draw with the UAE and Qatar. Then the "white wolves" will 100% qualify for the World Cup. Because the team will have 18 points, and even if the UAE and Qatar win their remaining 2 games, they will not be able to reach Uzbekistan. As you can see, everything is in their hands. It is enough if they manage to get even 1 point from their 2 main opponents. That is, at least draw with the UAE and Qatar, that is, do not lose. That's it, that's all.
Other scenarios
There are other scenarios, but they do not depend on Uzbekistan. That is, the UAE and Qatar will lose points in other matches. For example, neighboring Kyrgyzstan can prepare a surprise and take points from both the UAE and Qatar at home.
According to an extremely optimistic scenario, Uzbekistan can officially qualify for the World Cup in 3 days. There are 2 options:
1. They need to draw with Iran, and in parallel matches the UAE and Qatar must lose;
2. They need to defeat Iran, and in parallel matches the UAE and Qatar either draw or lose.
In both cases, Uzbekistan will officially qualify for the World Cup. The remaining 2 matches will be just for formalities. Of course, it is hard to believe this, but in the theory of probability such a possibility is not excluded. Follow “Zamin” news on “Telegram”
Ctrl
Enter
Did you find a Mistake?
Highlight the phrase and press Ctrl+EnterRelated News
