Israel's attacks - a threat to the existence of power in Iran?

Iran’s political elite is facing its most difficult period since the Islamic Revolution. So, can it be said that internal discontent and economic crisis, combined with external military aggression, create an existential threat for the regime? Experts from Kun.uz’s “Geopolitics” program discussed this important question, which is relevant not only for Iranians but for the whole region.

Shavkat Ikromov: The Israeli side declares that it will continue the war with Iran as long as necessary. In the US, however, they say the war could last a maximum of 14 days. One thing must be taken into account: Israel possesses great military power, but its resources are also limited. The extent of the US’s involvement in this war remains uncertain.

We can confidently say that the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran is now experiencing its weakest days in history. The main support pillars of the Iranian regime—military generals, leaders of the Revolutionary Guards—have been eliminated by Israel several times over the past three or four years. And this time, during the attacks, Netanyahu addressed the Iranians with a provocative appeal: “Your government is weaker than ever, come out to the streets and let your voices be heard.”

Unfortunately, this is true: over the past three or four years, economic and social problems have deeply taken root in Iran. After Pizeshkian came to power, some liberal reforms were expected, but so far no real changes have occurred.

For some generations, the regime that has existed since 1979 seems completely unshakable. But looking from the outside, the regime is currently in a very weak position, and any scenarios can be expected.

Kamoliddin Rabbimov: The only force that can overthrow the political regime in Iran is the absolute majority of the Iranian people. Iran is a large country, with a population of 85 million. At the time of the revolution in 1979, it was 35 million. Nearly 10 million of them took to the streets and overthrew the Shah.

Currently, the Iranian people are choosing between a bad and a very bad regime. On one side is the political regime with low legitimacy. On the other, the overwhelming majority of Iran’s population cannot accept Israel. Therefore, in my opinion, the chances that the people will overthrow the regime during the confrontation with Israel are very low.

Netanyahu is calling on the Iranian people to take to the streets and overthrow the government, but Iranians are demanding retaliatory strikes against Israel from their top leadership. Usually, an external enemy consolidates the people and the state.

Even if Ayatollah Khamenei is eliminated by Israel, Iran’s Council of Ulama will appoint the next leader. Pizeshkian is moving toward agreements with the West, but it is America and Israel who are disrupting the process, not Iran.