US President Donald Trump, amid ongoing intense protests against Iran’s government, is considering options for taking “tough measures” against Tehran. According to The Wall Street Journal, Washington has already warned its Middle East allies about possible military operations. The UK’s The Telegraph analyzed four main scenarios for how events could unfold.
1. “Symbolic strikes”: a serious warning to Tehran
Under the first option, the US could carry out limited airstrikes to show Iran’s authorities that executing protesters and conducting bloody crackdowns will not go unanswered.
- Targets: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) bases or nuclear program facilities.
- Goal: to force the regime to halt repression.
- Risk: if the strikes are not strong enough, Tehran may interpret them as US weakness, further escalating the situation.
2. Large-scale campaign: toppling the regime
The second scenario envisions sustained, heavy bombardment aimed at completely dismantling Iran’s current system.
- Strategy: not only military bases but also government institutions, courts, prosecutors’ offices, and official media outlets would be targeted.
- Challenge: the US would need to deploy additional carrier strike groups to the region. There is also a risk that external aggression could rally Iranians around the current government.
3. Eliminating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
A drastic step similar to the “Venezuela scenario” (a plan to detain Maduro) may appear appealing to Washington. The third option is the physical elimination of Iran’s supreme leader.
- Expected outcome: it is assumed that regime figures left without Khamenei would agree to US demands (giving up nuclear weapons and more) to save their lives.
- Risk: Khamenei is not only a political leader but also a religious one. His killing could ignite sectarian conflict and a wider war across the Middle East.
4. Cyberwar and information support
The fourth path is to support protesters with information and technology without direct military intervention.
- Methods: launching cyberattacks on Iranian government networks and delivering Starlink terminals into the country to break the internet blockade.
- Experts’ view: some analysts say time has been lost for this option and that only external military pressure can now stop the regime.
Do you think US military intervention in Iran’s internal affairs would bring peace to the region or further destabilize the situation?
Read “Zamin” on Telegram!
