Photo: Toby Melville / Reuters / Scanpix / LETA
The bloody clashes in the Middle East have entered their third week. While the world's attention is focused on the sharp confrontation between the White House and Tehran, the situation is becoming much more complicated than expected. Zamin.uz analyzes the latest details and possible scenarios of this conflict.
US President Donald Trump has not yet clearly defined the ultimate goal of the military actions against Iran. What is the White House's intention - to overthrow the existing regime, to force Tehran to sit down at the negotiating table on the nuclear program, or to completely destroy its military machine? These questions remain unanswered.
Iran's "asymmetric" shock and economic paralysis
Despite significant economic and military losses, Iran managed to deliver a "painful" blow to the world market.
- Strait of Hormuz: Tehran blocked this vital route, which accounts for about 20 percent of the world's oil transit. This led to a sharp increase in fuel prices.
- The escalation of the conflict: Knowing its vulnerability in direct confrontation, the Islamic Republic is employing tactics to increase the "price" of war. Attacks on neighboring countries are causing regional instability.
Trump's choice between two fires
According to The New York Times, the Trump administration underestimated Iran's desire to defend itself by any means and its ability to harm the global economy. Now the president has two options:
- Continuing the war: This can lead to unexpected new risks and the situation becoming uncontrollable.
- Outcome: This will be a political defeat for Trump, as none of the declared goals (for example, the complete elimination of the nuclear threat) have been achieved.
Important fact: although Iran's nuclear infrastructure has been partially destroyed, there is a possibility of its restoration. Tehran retains high-enriched uranium reserves sufficient to create 10 nuclear warheads.
Expected scenarios and tactical challenges
1. Exhaustion warfare: The main role here depends on the stock of ammunition and air defense systems. Trump called on his allies to protect tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, but European countries and South Korea rejected the proposal.
2. Radical decisions: The US may seize Harg Island, a key point of Iranian oil exports, or send special forces (landing force) to capture nuclear reserves. However, this scenario could lead to enormous losses for the American military.
Bitter war statistics (3 weeks total)
- The total number of victims is more than 2,100.
- Peaceful population (Iran) - more than 1,300 people.
- US military losses - 13 people.
- US forces in the region - 52,500 military personnel and 3 aircraft carrier groups.
The end of the war remains uncertain, although the Pentagon claims full dominance in the air and the destruction of the main part of the Iranian fleet. Trump's promised "fast and bloodless" victory is under a great test.
In your opinion, should Trump continue the war or seek a new agreement with Iran? How long do you think the impact of this conflict on the world economy will continue?
Read “Zamin” on Telegram!
