Birth rates are dropping sharply worldwide: demographic risk intensifies

The birth rate required to maintain a stable population level has dropped in many countries around the world. This trend is now becoming increasingly evident not only in wealthy nations, but also in developing countries.

To keep the population at a steady level, an average of 2.1 children per woman is needed. However, according to recent estimates, in more than half of the world's countries — specifically, in over two-thirds of the 195 nations — the birth rate has fallen below this threshold. This was reported by the Bild publication, citing data from the Financial Times.

The sharp decline in fertility is no longer just a phenomenon specific to rich countries. On the contrary, this trend is turning into a new demographic pattern in developing nations as well.

This situation is particularly striking in Thailand. The country's birth rate stands at an average of 0.78 children per woman. If the current situation continues in this manner, Thailand's population could virtually disappear within a century.

In Mexico, too, the birth rate has halved over the past 25 years. By 2024, the average in the country was 1.2 children per woman. A similar trend is being observed in African mega-cities.

Economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde emphasized that the demographic decline cannot be assessed as a temporary phenomenon. In his view, this process could last for several generations. This is likely to bring about serious and dangerous consequences in the future.

The expert noted that this is not just about the world population shrinking from 8 billion to 6 billion. Over the long term, this process could also lead to the complete disappearance of the population. According to Jesús Fernández-Villaverde's projections, the world population may peak in the 2050s and then decline continuously.

At the same time, many countries are beginning to age before they have time to become sufficiently rich economically. For example, nations like Mexico and Thailand may face the problem of covering the costs of an aging society before they manage to accumulate wealth like Germany or Japan.

According to a study by the University of Cincinnati (USA), the widespread adoption of smartphones may also be one of the main factors contributing to the decline in fertility. Since young people spend more time using the internet and digital devices, they allocate less time to face-to-face communication with one another.

In addition, economic crises, housing shortages, and financial difficulties are further intensifying the decline in birth rates.

Earlier, it was reported that a matchmaking service for civil servants was launched in Singapore due to a sharp drop in the birth rate. For the first time in the last 60 years, fewer than 30,000 babies were born in the country in 2025.

At the same time, Singapore's population is also aging increasingly. The number of deaths in the country has been steadily increasing, reaching approximately 26,500 in 2025.