Weather forecasts are becoming increasingly accurate thanks to modern technology. However, public trust in weather reports remains limited. Famous British weather presenter Carol Kirkwood says she has frequently encountered such complaints in her 30-year career. According to her, sometimes it’s forecast to rain but the day turns out sunny, or vice versa — which undermines people’s trust.
Experts say that today, one-day weather forecasts are more than 90% accurate. But because forecasts must be delivered in a brief, quick, and media-friendly format, all the details are not always fully explained. This often leads to misinterpretation.
Meteorology is a delicate and complex science. According to Chaos Theory, even a small error — as little as 0.01°C — can change the entire forecast. Another issue is the low accuracy in small geographic areas. For example, it is very difficult to predict weather events like fog that only affect a 1 km area.
In recent years, major steps have been taken to improve forecast quality using artificial intelligence. AI models developed by Google DeepMind are capable of providing accurate forecasts up to 15 days in advance.
In the future, weather will not just be presented as “will it rain or not”, but in the form of “how this rain will affect your garden or travel”. Experts believe it's essential to explain not only what the weather will be like, but also what it will lead to.
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