Opta calculates the quarter-finals: the toughest matchup highlighted

Ahead of the 2026 World Cup quarter-finals, the statistics portal Opta has released its predictions for the probabilities of reaching the semi-finals.

According to the calculations, France is rated as the team with the highest chance of advancing to the next round. The most balanced and unpredictable match is identified as the England vs Norway clash.

France seen as the biggest favorite

According to Opta's analysis, the probability of the France national team defeating Morocco and reaching the semi-finals is estimated at 74%.

For Morocco, this figure stands at 26%. This means France is viewed as the biggest favorite at this stage.

Spain and Argentina also rated as favorites

Spain's probability of reaching the semi-finals against Belgium is shown as 70%. For Belgium, this chance is equal to 30%.

In the Argentina vs Switzerland pairing, the reigning champions are also rated as favorites. Opta estimates Argentina's chance of reaching the next round at 69%, and Switzerland's at 31%.

The most balanced matchup — England and Norway

The England vs Norway match is highlighted as the most complex and difficult to predict quarter-final game.

Opta estimates England's chance of reaching the semi-finals at 62% and Norway's at 38%. This shows that the gap is significantly smaller compared to other pairings.

Opta predictions

Probabilities of reaching the semi-finals are as follows:

• France — 74%, Morocco — 26%;

• Spain — 70%, Belgium — 30%;

• Argentina — 69%, Switzerland — 31%;

• England — 62%, Norway — 38%.

Calculations are one thing, the pitch is another

Although Opta's numbers highlight the favorites, in the playoffs, every single episode can change the fate of the match.

France, Spain, and Argentina look superior on paper in the quarter-finals. However, the intrigue remains at its highest level in the England vs Norway clash.